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Trend is Aapthamithra
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Author Trend is Aapthamithra
channasri
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Post: #1   PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:02 pm    Post subject: Trend is Aapthamithra Reply with quote

Dear ichartians,

I have started this thread keeping in mind the novice traders.

Aapthamithra (Kannada word) means 'BEST FRIEND' and also the friend who comes to rescue in difficult situations. My little knowledge and experience in F&O trading says that for any trader trend following and nothing else can ensure not only protecting the capital but also earning profits.

I have developed a SAR based trading method for positional trades in Nifty. It is titled as 'channasriSAR'. This SAR is calculated from many inputs available for icharts subscribers. I will be providing 'channasriSAR' for every trading session either on the previous night or before trading hours. I am a busy working professional. I have to dedicate quality time to parents, wife and kids. Hence, it is not possible to give a particular time everyday to provide daily updates. However, except those 'out of control' kind of days, I will provide 'channasriSAR' daily updates. If I am unable to provide the daily update, please use 20 Days EMA for reference.

Whenever time permits I will share my insights based on my little bit of knowledge with the good intention of helping the novice traders.

I have attached a performance chart for about 9 months.

MOST IMPORTANT:

1) My humble request to the readers of this thread is to avoid giving their own 'trading calls' here. Because, most of the novice traders get distracted easily.
2) I request the readers to take their own decisions while trading.
3) This thread is only to help the novice traders in identifying the trend. I request them to develop their own trading methods and follow them religiously.
4) Like any trading method, 'whipsaws' do occur here also.
5) Huge gap opening in the opposite direction and its sustainance is the worst enemy of this method and any other trading method also as per my little knowledge.

My best wishes to one and all for profitable trading.

Best regards,
channasri
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channasri
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Post: #2   PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:39 pm    Post subject: channasriSAR for Nifty for 13/1/2014 Reply with quote

Dear ichartians,

The channasriSAR for Nifty for 13/1/2014: 6199 (Nifty spot).

The above is for positional trades. Use 5min. charts. When 2 consecutive candles close above 6199, close shorts. Go long. SL for longs will be 2 consecutive candles closing below 6199. The day of reversal may have whipsaws. Hold the position for next session in the direction of price closing above channasriSAR (LONGS) or below it (SHORTS).

Suppose EOD on 13th is below 6199, hold the SHORTS. If closes above 6199, exit the SHORTS. Take LONG position. Buy 6100 Put as a hedge. Before the opening of session on 14th, I will post channasriSAR for it.

The above 2 paragraphs provide guidelines to follow this trading system.

You can follow your chosen method to decide. Please take your own decision for trading. After all you are using 'HARD CASH' for trading. Profit as well as loss belongs to you.

With best regards n best wishes,
channasri
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vinay28
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Post: #3   PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:54 pm    Post subject: Re: channasriSAR for Nifty for 13/1/2014 Reply with quote

channasri wrote:
Dear ichartians,

The channasriSAR for Nifty for 13/1/2014: 6199 (Nifty spot).

The above is for positional trades. Use 5min. charts. When 2 consecutive candles close above 6199, close shorts. Go long. SL for longs will be 2 consecutive candles closing below 6199. The day of reversal may have whipsaws. Hold the position for next session in the direction of price closing above channasriSAR (LONGS) or below it (SHORTS).

Suppose EOD on 13th is below 6199, hold the SHORTS. If closes above 6199, exit the SHORTS. Take LONG position. Buy 6100 Put as a hedge. Before the opening of session on 14th, I will post channasriSAR for it.

The above 2 paragraphs provide guidelines to follow this trading system.

You can follow your chosen method to decide. Please take your own decision for trading. After all you are using 'HARD CASH' for trading. Profit as well as loss belongs to you.

With best regards n best wishes,
channasri


three doubts
1. what if last two 5tf candles close above 6199 at the bell? In fact waiting for last 5tf to close is too late. so what if second and third last close above 6199?

2. Note that official bhavcopy close comes about 30 sec after the bell and is always different from close level at the bell. So how do you decide action has to be taken BEFORE the bell.

3. what if there is a gap up above 6199 and first 2 candles close>6199. Buy there or wait for a retracement?
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channasri
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Sun Jan 12, 2014 2:43 pm    Post subject: @ vinay28 Reply with quote

From 3-15 P.M. to 3-30 P.M. use 30 SMA in 1min. charts to decide. Because, the declared EOD as per my knowledge is the 30 SMA in 1 min. T/F. Between the last 2 candles of 5 min. T/F and 30 SMA of 1 min. T/F, I prefer the latter.

As far as the beginning of the next day's session is concerned, one can decide on the ORB - be it 15 min./30 min./60 min. depends on the trader. Alternatively, one can wait for the EOD also. Because, 6100 Put is there as a hedge. As per my experience and as revealed in the Excel file, the day of reversal shows whipsaws. Later, life will be much easier. My suggestion is to carry the 'hedge' till one becomes confident in holding the futures position in the direction of 'channasriSAR'.

The 'channasriSAR' for Friday (10th Jan. 2014) session was 6210. Nifty spot could overcome it and then fell to settle below it. So, one would have booked profit, entered the 'long' side and came out of it. Finally, one would take a 'short' position and carry but with a hedge of 6250/6300 Call. Because, 'channasriSAR' was breached intraday and the 'short' position at EOD would be a new trade. Hence the hedge. However, for the trader who decides on the basis of EOD alone, there would be no trade at all. It is upto the risk profile of the trader.

If a trader wants to go by retracement, the 2 levels chosen for retracement varies from one to another. Therefore, please chose your preferred trading style to use 'channasriSAR' for trading purpose.

It is also possible to take a decision to enter or exit a positional trade based on T/F lower than daily charts. For example, in 15 min. T/F, crossover of 21 SMA over 34 SMA in the 2nd half of the session is fairly good for this purpose. Same thing in 30 min. T/F is still better. More conservative people may prefer same crossover in 60 min. charts which is even better. Someone may have a set up in these lower T/F different from 21/34. Please go by your own judgement.

I can suggest another approach also. For Monday (13/1/2014), 'channasriSAR' is 6199. Use 6179 as SL for 'SHORTS' and 6219 as SL for 'LONGS'. Again one may ask whether to decide on the basis of 5 min. candles. I would say that it is left to one's risk profile and trading style.
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channasri
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Post: #5   PostPosted: Sun Jan 12, 2014 2:55 pm    Post subject: Performance chart in Excel 97-03 Reply with quote

I have attached the Nifty performance of channasriSAR in Excel 97-03 version.
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pkholla
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

channsri: thank you on behalf of .xls fans. prakash holla
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channasri
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Post: #7   PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:34 pm    Post subject: channasriSAR for Nifty for 14/1/2014 Reply with quote

Please note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 14/1/2014: 6210

SL for LONGS: 6230
SL for SHORTS: 6190
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channasri
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Post: #8   PostPosted: Wed Jan 15, 2014 1:13 am    Post subject: channasriSAR for Nifty for 15/1/2014 Reply with quote

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 15/1/2014: 6213 (Nifty spot)

SL for LONGS: 6233
SL for SHORTS: 6203
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channasri
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Post: #9   PostPosted: Thu Jan 16, 2014 8:52 am    Post subject: channasriSAR for Nifty for 16/1/2014 Reply with quote

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 15/1/2014: 6231 (Nifty spot)

SL for LONGS: 6251
SL for SHORTS: 6211
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channasri
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Post: #10   PostPosted: Fri Jan 17, 2014 6:03 am    Post subject: channasriSAR for Nifty for 17/1/2014 Reply with quote

Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 17/1/2014: 6247 (Nifty spot)

SL for LONGS: 6267
SL for SHORTS: 6227
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niknish
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Fri Jan 17, 2014 6:15 am    Post subject: channasriSAR for Nifty Reply with quote

GM sir, very good analysis & thanks for your posts on Nifty, it is really useful, pls continue good work. Regards.
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channasri
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Post: #12   PostPosted: Fri Jan 17, 2014 6:44 am    Post subject: Nifty resistance and possible weekly trend - an observation Reply with quote

Dear novice traders,

Nifty appears to be doing a retracement for the fall from 6415 to 6130. The 80% fibonacci level comes at 6358. More highs are possible above this level only. Today being the last session of this week, EOD becomes very important for the next week. The critical numbers are provided below:

Developing 5W High EMA: 6311 (High for this week has been 6347, y'day)
Developing 5W EMA : 6246
Developing 5W Low EMA : 6166

The EOD based on above can be interpreted as:

EOD above 6311 means continuation of bull run with more intensity.
EOD below 6311 but above 6246 means sell on rises with bullish bias.
EOD below 6246 but above 6166 means correction to be expected.
EOD below 6166 means bearish movements.
EOD above 6166 but after going below 6166 means buy on dips.

Please remember that the weekly trend is asserted in a strong way on the last session of the week - especially the second half of the session.

The above posting is based on weekly trends which can be seen in the icharts provided weekly charts. Few whipsaws may be observed when the trend is sideways in weekly charts. Otherwise, the above strategy works quite well. Take your own decision based on self study.
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channasri
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Post: #13   PostPosted: Fri Jan 17, 2014 6:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GM niknish,

Thanks for the appreciation.

Best regards,
channasri
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kishjk7551
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Fri Jan 17, 2014 8:38 am    Post subject: Re: channasriSAR for Nifty for 17/1/2014 Reply with quote

channasri wrote:
Pls note the channasriSAR for Nifty for 17/1/2014: 6247 (Nifty spot)

SL for LONGS: 6267
SL for SHORTS: 6227


Hi Channasri

I think the SL for long and short are interchanged , because if i go long at 6247 then 6227 should be my SL and if the market goes below 6247 and i short the my SL should be 6267 , am i correct or is there something that i am missing.

Regards
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channasri
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Fri Jan 17, 2014 9:43 pm    Post subject: Justification for SL Reply with quote

Hi kishjk7551,

The channasriSAR is for positional trades. The SLs given were for the trades initiated earlier and carried to today's session. When the trend reverses, one has to keep a SL as you have mentioned. Also, when an intra-day opportunity becomes available. For example, if Nifty had gone lower than 6247, one would take a 'SHORT' position with 6267 as SL. If Nifty goes below 6227, takes U-turn and starts rising above 6227, one would book profit at 6227.

Traders are also welcome to have their own strategies to use channasriSAR.

As a busy working professional without access to PC for providing inputs/views intra-day, I have to respond in the late evenings/nights/mornings only. Please don't mind for late response.

Regards,
channasri
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