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Trend Following Trades in Silver, Crude, Gold and NG
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Author Trend Following Trades in Silver, Crude, Gold and NG
trendy
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Joined: 16 Oct 2006
Posts: 40

Post: #16   PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Decent number for a commodities thread - 436 views overall!!

Click on
"iCharts Discussions Forum Index -> Commodities" link above
or
http://www.icharts.in/forum/commodities-f7.html

Cheers!
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opportunist
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Joined: 27 Apr 2010
Posts: 356

Post: #17   PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guys

Thanks for your response. Since at least 4 persons apart from Amit Aggarwal have responded and shown interest in my thread I am continuing. Also I found from forum listing that there are around 400 visits. So I feel that the effort was not totally in vain.

Now, I find reversal sign in the trend of SilverM June and have exited at 38300 making a net profit of 620 points. If you agree then immediately exit. Still you would make at least 600 points if you mimicked my trade.

Regards,
Oppo
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opportunist
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Joined: 27 Apr 2010
Posts: 356

Post: #18   PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:54 am    Post subject: Re: 1 more fan Reply with quote

Prakash Sir,

Na mein Dravid, na mein Sehwag, main to hoon bas opportunist, javascript:emoticon('Smile') mauke ka fayda uthane wala trader. Shayad maine jab 2010 mein ichart join kiya tha aur apna nickname "opportunist" chuna tha to intuitively mujhey trend trading jaisa hi kuch method sahi laga tha. Kyonki trend trading hi sikhata hai ki mauke dekh kar long ya short karo, pure bear ya bull mat bano.

But then I got lost in the glamorous and complicated world of trying to predict the market using the Wolves, Elliots and the Ganns.javascript:emoticon('Laughing')

Thank God finally after a lot of pain and suffering I have come to the right path which justifies my name. But it was necessary to go through it because all that which may seem simple now was not so easy at one point in time and the foundations of my current decisions are based on the learnings from those days.

Regards,
Oppo


pkholla wrote:
Oppo: Count me in on those following your threadS!
We are lucky to have such dedicated knowledge-able co-travellers (willing to share) with us in ICharts!
I only hesitated to post earlier because I dont know anything about commodity trading (but would like to) and didnt want to post unnecessarily, bloating up your thread
Cheers, Prakash Holla

Looking fwd to reading more from "Jaroori Padey To Mein Dravid, Mauka Miley To Mein Sehwag!"


Last edited by opportunist on Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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opportunist
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Post: #19   PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:32 pm    Post subject: No Trades today Reply with quote

Dear All,

No trades today as I find that my shortlisted futures in NG, Silver or Gold are not in a position for a good entry.

Crude though is in a bearish trend and if someone wants to enter then s/he can (although I wont). This trade can make at least around 50 points but I feel that the trend has run almost 80% of its course.

Regards,
Oppo
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opportunist
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Post: #20   PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guys


I had already mentioned on 22nd June morning that Silver has had a reversal of trend which is now confirmed. This is why I quickly exited my short position on 22nd Morning and asked everybody to do so.


Now this has become a short bullish reversal but the overall trend is still bearish. So treat this as a small pullback of around 800 - 850 points to be entered at around 38500-38550 which may possibly exhaust at around 39300-39400. Thereafter I expect a long bearish rally.


So you may enter long now at the above levels (SilverM June) with SL of around 38300.


People who are very risk averse may wait for the bearish rally to resume again as mentioned above.


Regards,
Oppo
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amitagg
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Post: #21   PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"People who are risk averse"

When one is trading without emotions
This statement does not make any sense
In fact they say traders should first be risk averse and then be profit oriented
For risk aversion may may may just be quantity can be altered but system should be followed

more guidance is welcome; What is the entry price
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opportunist
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Post: #22   PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry I was in a flight, so could not respond. Wrote the last post just before boarding. So I am aware that precise entry advice could not be provided for this week. Apologies for that.


The reason why I was vague was that I myself avoided the trade. I wanted 'peace' Smile and was reluctant to take this long position myself as I felt that it wont go far and cause unnecessary headache of keeping a watch for sudden reversal.


I would rather prefer to take an overall bearish position in the direction of the broader trend in Silver right now than trying to make some money on a 'pullback'. Nevertheless I realised that some people may be less 'peace loving' and willing to take the 'headache' which is why I used the term 'less risk averse'. After all there is a good possibility of making around 800 points (again against my philosophy of trying to predict the market).


So all in all my reluctance resulted in vague suggestion. I will remember to be more precise next time even when I am avoiding the trade.

Regards,
Oppo



amitagg wrote:
"People who are risk averse"

When one is trading without emotions
This statement does not make any sense
In fact they say traders should first be risk averse and then be profit oriented
For risk aversion may may may just be quantity can be altered but system should be followed

more guidance is welcome; What is the entry price
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sonybpl
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Post: #23   PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hello Amitsir,
hello Opposir,
How do u calculate ROI???
As Amitsir is not agree with Opposir's method of ROI calculation.
So please throw some light on calculation of RETURN ON INVESTMENT.
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opportunist
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Post: #24   PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let me quote an established website on this:

In trading and finance, the ROI (also known as "rate of profit", "yield" or sometimes just "return") is the ratio of money gained or lost on an investment relative to the amount of money invested. The amount of money gained or lost may be referred as interest, profit/loss, gain/loss or net income/loss. (Source: http://en.tradimo.com/tradipedia/return-on-investment/)


So if I have blocked 30K as margin money for a futures trade and make 6K profit after 15 days then I have made a ROI of 6/30=20%

Now some one might argue that although the margin money of 30K was ‘blocked’ but the total trading account of 50K had another 20K which was not used. So ROI should be 6/50=12% and not 20%. I don’t agree with this definition. Precisely because 20K was NOT ‘invested’; it remained in the account idle.

If anybody has problems with the above argument then I can propose a way out. We can call it ROR or ‘Return on Risk’ instead of Return on Investment. That is if one has put up 30K out of 50K as margin then 30K is the amount he has put on ‘Risk’. That Risk gave him a return of 6k. So his ROR is 6/30=20%. I don’t think anybody will have problem with this definition.


Regards,
Oppo



sonybpl wrote:
hello Amitsir,
hello Opposir,
How do u calculate ROI???
As Amitsir is not agree with Opposir's method of ROI calculation.
So please throw some light on calculation of RETURN ON INVESTMENT.
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AmitSwl_FnO
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Post: #25   PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very nice and appreciable efforts Oppo, with equally good inputs from PKH,Amit.
keep sharing your trading story with emotional ups and downs during past years.
it is delight to visit your thread as time permits.
amit
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sonybpl
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Post: #26   PostPosted: Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks a lot opposir for your prompt response.
Actually I raised this simple question only because of the difference of opinions between opposir and amitsir.
But you changed the word ROI to ROR and it is enough to clear doubts between opposir and amitsir.
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opportunist
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Post: #27   PostPosted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not at al sonybpl, it is always a privilege to be able to clarify anything.


Dear all,

I dont forsee any entry in Silver or Crude or NG or Gold. So no calls today.

Regards,

Oppo
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opportunist
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Post: #28   PostPosted: Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear all,

GoldM July 2017

Entry: 28430 (May enter till 28400)
Target 28070
SL:28610 (28600 in case entry is 28400)

Regards,
Oppo
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opportunist
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Post: #29   PostPosted: Fri Jun 30, 2017 4:38 pm    Post subject: Disclaimer Reply with quote

Dear all,

Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether commodity futures are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital (money not required for regular necessities) should be used when trading futures.

I have taken due care and caution in analyzing the prices of the futures discussed herein. The views and trading tips expressed by me may be further checked with certified experts before taking any trading decision. I do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and I am not and will not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. I hereby state that I have no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided herein.

Please verify all information before undertaking any trade. Trades undertaken by anyone following my advice posted herein will solely be the responsibility of the individual undertaking the trade.

Regards,
Opportunist


Last edited by opportunist on Mon Jul 03, 2017 5:10 pm; edited 3 times in total
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opportunist
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Post: #30   PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2017 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Guys

My GoldM July 2017 trade was abruptly cut off at 28315 (probably as the future was nearing expiry)

Entered today - GoldM August 2017 at 28433.
SL - 28550
Target 28250.

Regards,
Oppo
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