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Possibility of selling on Margin pressure on Monday?!
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Author Possibility of selling on Margin pressure on Monday?!
rk_a2003
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Post: #1   PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:21 pm    Post subject: Possibility of selling on Margin pressure on Monday?! Reply with quote

Today after opening Gap down market correcetd steep and sharp from 11.30 to 12.30 and then recovered from lows. Is it selling due to margin pressure?!

Seniors! please shed some light on this. If today the slide in US market continues ; Monday, Indian market too may open with a gap down . Can we expect margin pressure selling on Monday too?!

Some one who knows about the dynamics of how this pressure works on market during continuous fall - please explain like how and when it happens.

Thanks & Regards

RK
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rk_a2003
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Post: #2   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Experts! please respond.
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hasten
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Post: #3   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Index Futures FII’s were net sellers to the tune of ` 3,468 Cr
with an open interest increase of around ` 2,655 Cr as
compared to net selling to the tune of ` 738 Cr with an open
interest decrease of around ` 1,278 Cr as of the previous
trading week.

Short build up was seen in Auto, Banking, Cement, Metals, IT, Capital Goods, Pharma, Power, Finance, Infra, Media and Real Estate.

Long Unwinding was seen in FMCG, Oil & Gas, Textiles, Telecom, Chemicals & Fertilizers, Sugar and Shipping.

Intensifying growth concerns and deteriorating sovereign debt ratings from the west have resulted in a worldwide sell-off in equities. Our markets were no exception, pulling down sharply across the board. Metals and technology sectors, which have a high linkage to global economic growth, and real estate and high-debt companies came in for a severe pounding.

In the near term, our markets would be very much coupled with the markets in the west. If we extend our horizon a bit longer, we are likely to outperform on the premise that likely lower commodity inflation owing to slowing global economic growth combined with India’s high domestic oriented economy and strong growth prospects would attract global savings for our markets. Since the decoupling is unlikely to happen immediately and therefore we too are going to be prone to the vagaries of global markets, cheap might become cheaper in the short term; so we’d advise to wait and not jump in just yet. One can only be selective at this point in time, however, we remain positive from a medium term perspective. We expect consumption and healthcare to continue to outperform. IT, commodities, real estate and capex based sectors and high-debt companies are likely to be the underperformers. We are neutral on banks, though, deterioration in credit quality is possible. Technically markets are oversold and therefore we could witness a pullback; however this could be construed as a relief rally only and be short lived.

Technically, market is likely to find support at 5177 & 5100 levels and would face resistance at 5252 & 5323 levels.




Regards. hasten roulette
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casper
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi brother,

market is falling in some panic na? as if ship is sinking and ppls are trying to save their lives by jumping into deep blue sea!

just like titanic, how nice to watch it with a cup of tea if u r already short..... otherwise...well leave it Very Happy

why we plunged? due to dow? ok ... i wonder why dow went down? US debt problem and commodity price fall?

well, when last time we made high, US was lagging and our market was flooding wid US money , infact that was the reason for reaching 6300, it was not ur and my money that made nifty run like hell

so international problems, on the long run, are not that harmful for our health

and price fall in crude and commodities is rather welcome situation for us, coz we are consumers, we import a lot, any price fall will made indian economy dance!!

this what i wrote, is my personal belief

out of the same belief, i, on several occasions in my thread and more recently, in anand's market thread, posted my view and gave the target of some 5260 range, i am not an expert, at least no body thinks me an expert, so what can i say other than saying "thank u" to mr bear??
24 24

"yes, thanks once again mr bear, it was an wonderful ride! but my heart says now... no more fall, its time to get up, at least upto some level, then again we will think of falling, but not now, plz, we had enough Very Happy "

the last eod candle was a hammer, wid great volume, it , in at least 95% times , shows the end of bear phase for time being, it is true for not only stock market, but i hv seen same thing in several other markets too and we r on a support level by closing

does that says that no more fall for sure? well in market there is no sure thing, all goes by perceptions, some watches levels, some follows indicators, some goes to astrologers, at the end of the day every body is essentially betting as per their faith, thats it Very Happy

for every sell their is a buyer, for every buy, there is a seller, in this fall, peoples shorted, means some body bought, why they bought? r they fools or super investors? god knows!

so my bet is, this friday, fall, whatever happened, is not so convincing for me to go short right and left, i bet for a pull back, at least upto 5260-5250

if u want to fall from here, well no problem, but u will need some really spooky, Godzilla like news to pop out so that peoples loose their wits and go short

so what is going to happen on monday?? well i dont know, and even if i get to know, i wont post Very Happy

why??

u guys are here to be better traders by practicing t.a, so find out guys,find it out in real time, gather exp, it does not take 10 or 20 years to become a successful trader, what it takes is a sound understanding of market psychology and if u dont work on that, no matter how many multibaggers u bag, u will remain novice and will remain vulnerable to lose all some day in future

so monday open jchart realtime and see how things are happening and try to explain, it will be confusing for u if u r a fresher, but every body got to start some day, all the experts, including this "not expert" had to start like u,
if u dont, u will never learn and then, u will never become a successful traders

if u r not a subscriber, subscribe at once, ichart provides best real time data for most competitive prices, this should be ur first step to be a successful trader

dont get overawed by ready made calls posted here and there with lots of ooooh's and aaaaah's, try to find the logic why the author is saying to buy or saying to sell, try it and u will be fine

ok, enough is enough 24 let me stop boring u here... just wacthout for any bad development, we can have knee jerks here, otherwise, i hope, some pull back will come and yes, if u stay another two days below 5200 then lower level will become unavoidable
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rk_a2003
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Post: #5   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks ! Casper & Hasten For your response.

RK
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vinay28
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also think that what happened was more due to panic and then momentum. I feel market will go up from here because there is still some time for the big fall to come, either from 16th ot 30th. Aug.
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rk_a2003
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Post: #7   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
I also think that what happened was more due to panic and then momentum. I feel market will go up from here because there is still some time for the big fall to come, either from 16th ot 30th. Aug.


Vinay !

As per TA you are 100% right . Just in 9 trading days Nifty nosedived from 5700 to 5100+ and settled at 5200+ on closing basis. It's really oversold.
A bounce should happen at least before another fall.

But, the problem is during panic times all TA and fundamentls are thrown to dustbin, and bounces can be limited to intraday.

Thanks,
RK
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vinay28
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Post: #8   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know rk that technical analysis does not apply to panic situations but in the long run, it smoothens out all these abnormilities because time constant of market is large but not as large as, say, a country's cycle, or weather pattern such monsoon forecast, etc. Even in statistical analysis, you are supposed to ignore extreme values.

I feel market will go up now and will fall later because I believe FIIs (who rule our market) have not been able to get out the way they would have liked to. So they would first take our market up (say 5660 or more) waiting for suckers like us to get in and then dump us only to enter, say, around 4600. But, at the same time, I would be very careful when nifty goes once again to 5100 because that may actually be the BOTTOM, even as we are once again fooled to believe that market will crash further.

We already know most (if not all) of the bad news in India and the rest of world. But there is one more bad news, which I am afraid, may come. We now that the senior MPs (60+) in congress are divided. We also know that younger MPs are also divided. That makes a 4 way split in congress. Most of them are scoundrels and scalawags anyway. Imagine what will happen to congress and the Govt. if, God forbid, Sonia becomes invalid or non-functional or even dead. That will break the camel's back and then FIIs will loose complete confidence in the governence of the country.

I am honestly looking forward to get out of my investments as market goes up, hoping that it will at least go to 5660.
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mania
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Post: #9   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now the question is who is in pain bear or bull ? The answer is obvious.. I see most people expecting a pullback so that they can dump their stocks to retail investors/weaker ones and then expect a big fall........

At this level, it is risky to short or long... let's dust settle down and study the market for another couple days..... and then decide next steps...
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ronypan
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Post: #10   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pullback is possible from the current level but Big Sharks know that Buyers of 5300 and 5400 are Weak Hands and Everyone is being Buyer at current level So Market Will drift sharply from Current Level until Weak Hands leave position.. Then Market will be in sharp recovery of upper level..

Market is only driven by few people... We are just tracking them through Technical..
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vinay28
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Experts, what do you make of the attached chart?


Nifty.png
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casper
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Post: #12   PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi vinay

plz dont mind, but being a lil senior than u in this market (hopefully) i am asking u what is so unique in this chart in ur eyes? its an eod chart of nifty where you have drawn some retracements, now retracement is such a thing which will always show starting point as 0 and ending point ( final point so far) as 100. which, in a freshers eye will look like a support/resi levels which some time can be false too, thats why, its a tool, which can do miracle in a experienced hand and can be a disaster in an inexperienced hand, so its effectiveness is depending up on the user, so plz tell me what , according to u, most applying in this chart? why u put that retracement and what is the signal its giving to us??

u all new guys are doing great in the forum, but in market, when it comes for developments,sky is the only limit for a trader, so come on, tell us , be it right, be it wrong, what u r getting from this chart??

i am sure u guys have lots of potentials and soon will prove urself in this market as successful traders,

with best wishes

casper
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vinay28
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Post: #13   PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2011 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many thanks Casper. Yes, you are indeed much senior to me in the stock market. In fact, I hardly know anything about technical analysis in this field except a little about charts that I studied for other purposes many many years ago.

I started a few months ago to study, among other things, how the charts apply to stock market. Having heard (only heard) about fibo retracements, I tried this chart, particularly because it changed so dramatically in two days (e.g. 1st may to 3rd Aug and to 5th Aug) and I am fascinated by sudden changes (as well as unusual coincidences). But, as you rightly said, I thought that nifty had bounced off its bottom (0) with resistances at different higher levels. Hopefully you will pardon me for my ignorance and for putting up a query for seniors like you to comment upon.

Thanks once again & with best regards
Vinay
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casper
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2011 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi vinay

yes, i guessed it, that's why i asked it to explain the thing, Very Happy

ok, lets see what is fib retracement stands for,

it is a system of guessing the possible support/ resistance zone of a given security IN THE LIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS FULL MOVE. plz rem that capital letters,

now what is happening? when we are drawing this (or any kind of retracement ... there are a lot of other types) we are virtually telling that tool " look here, it was the previous full move ( or trend as we say) price started from point a and it reached to point b, now by reaching point b, we believe that trend (a-b) is finished. and if it is finished, then , with comparison to this distance show me what will be the FUTURE zones of support and resistance"

and fib is drawing some lines, according to its pre set formula to show where possible supply and demands are likely to come

so when we are looking for a top or bottom and using that move only (not the previous move) then it will show some crazy levels becoz, we cant draw it on "current move" , we need to draw it on previous move and super impose its levels of current moves

see the picture, here point a was starting point an point b was finishing point, we acknowledged that it was a full move or full trend, now, we wish to see, if it were full move, then what will come next??

in this picture, the diagonal line shows the full move, and the lateral lines are showing the possible demand and supply zones

simple is not it???

so, now on, we will never use any trend's own fib to find that trends top or bottom Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

on the contrary, we will use previous move's fib to get the idea of possible top or bottoms

and now, my "gospel'
24

do u know what exactly i feel when i see some body is talking some thing wrong about the market??

i just feel, this guy , as he does not know a thing about the market, is surely posses vast knowledge in another field where my own knowledge of that field could as tiny as infant to him

so, cheer up, we will not know every thing at every moment, but if we keep up learning it will make us better trader and moreover, better individuals

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy



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rk_a2003
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2011 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank You very much Casper!

For teaching us how to use Fib & also how not to use it. clap2

RK
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