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OPEN INTEREST IN NIFTY OPTIONS
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Author OPEN INTEREST IN NIFTY OPTIONS
yashrahul
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Post: #16   PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

options data at 2.36 pm,just like yesterday afternoon 5700 pe has started adding back oi it is now +1,06,250 and 6100 ce has come down to 3,48,250 again, owing to volatility,call writers and put writers are changing their positions it seems.
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yashrahul
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Post: #17   PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

07/10/2013

HIGHEST OPEN INTEREST IN PUT:5700PE =51,90,050.

HIGHEST OPEN INTEREST IN CALL:6100 CE =47,27,000.

Note: notable to see is that 6100 ce shed most of oi it had accumulated over the day while 5700 pe started adding oi during the last half hour, oi generally changes during last half hour when either there is long unwinding or short built up,FII and institutions use otm nifty options as a tool to hedge their bets when they buy or sell index futures/cash market equity.By today's data it is difficult to judge but inflation figures are round the corner,debt ceiling will resolve soon but looking at today's market it felt as if bulls lose steam when they reach 6000 in nifty futures(i may be totally wrong tomorrow morning if debt ceiling issue gets settled today night Laughing )
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vinay28
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Post: #18   PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yashrahul wrote:
07/10/2013

HIGHEST OPEN INTEREST IN PUT:5700PE =51,90,050.

HIGHEST OPEN INTEREST IN CALL:6100 CE =47,27,000.

Note: notable to see is that 6100 ce shed most of oi it had accumulated over the day while 5700 pe started adding oi during the last half hour, oi generally changes during last half hour when either there is long unwinding or short built up,FII and institutions use otm nifty options as a tool to hedge their bets when they buy or sell index futures/cash market equity.By today's data it is difficult to judge but inflation figures are round the corner,debt ceiling will resolve soon but looking at today's market it felt as if bulls lose steam when they reach 6000 in nifty futures(i may be totally wrong tomorrow morning if debt ceiling issue gets settled today night Laughing )


if 6100ce has shed oi and 5700pe has added, it means sentiment is still bullish ......... for at least 100 points more
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yashrahul
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Post: #19   PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your perfectly right as always Vinay28,this happens generally but in today's case it was slight different in the last 1 hour when the market was slowly going down,vix at close to 27,hdfc and hdfc bank 2 of fii fav scripts in the negative,bank nifty and nifty barely holding onto positive looking at all these factors plus one of the biggest factors cut in premium of nifty futures made me think the other way round.

You are perfectly right, 9 out of 10 times sentiment must be bullish "if 6100ce has shed oi and 5700pe has added" but i felt this time it might be different,I might be totally wrong but i added the note keeping all these factors in mind,Thanks once more Vinay28 if i go wrong like today please guide me.
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vinay28
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Post: #20   PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yashrahul wrote:
Your perfectly right as always Vinay28,this happens generally but in today's case it was slight different in the last 1 hour when the market was slowly going down,vix at close to 27,hdfc and hdfc bank 2 of fii fav scripts in the negative,bank nifty and nifty barely holding onto positive looking at all these factors plus one of the biggest factors cut in premium of nifty futures made me think the other way round.

You are perfectly right, 9 out of 10 times sentiment must be bullish "if 6100ce has shed oi and 5700pe has added" but i felt this time it might be different,I might be totally wrong but i added the note keeping all these factors in mind,Thanks once more Vinay28 if i go wrong like today please guide me.


OI shedding in ce and adding in pe can mean a fall in price as guessed by you instead of a rise but only if pcr is high due to options being predominently purchased and not written. this has indeed been happening in case of ITM and NTM options since sept and that's why premium was very high but it is uncommon. If you observe intraday chart of vix, it actually fell from about 1pm. But you could be right but a fall of 100-150 points is not what we should be looking for.

You are also right in that nifty and bank nifty barely held on to their position. But look at it from another point of view, which is, inspite of only falling after a gap up open, it still closed above yesterday's close and that today's low was above yesterday's high (NF was just 4 below).

IMHO, study of OI position should generally be used for finding change in trend, if any and not for intraday moves. when you study scrips popular with FIIs, you should also see whether prices are falling as accumulation is going on or actual sellng. Also, look for cash volume vis-a-vis f&o volume. Real fall comes after heavy cash selling. This is just a suggestion. no method is perfect. OI position comes very handy near expiry. Ask apka.
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yashrahul
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Post: #21   PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i am following the nifty options data for the past 2 years or so and whatever i explained was on whatever i have seen in the past 2 years.

Vinay28 thanks for your comments, i felt nice when u posted the 1 st time and even now after the explanation i have been waiting for your post as i knew that comments from you will always be constructive and will make me understand the subject matter better,hence the big explanation from me,thanks once more i will keep the points u mentioned in mind.
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yashrahul
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Post: #22   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the reason i am writing so early in the morning about nifty options data is that in hardly half an hour of trade 5700 pe has added 5,60,300 in oi,addition of more than 5 lakhs in half an hour of trade generally does not happen.
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yashrahul
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Post: #23   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

at 11,54 am 5700 pe has added 10,21,100 in oi,these are put writers most probably as premium of 5700 pe has come down more than it should.
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vinay28
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Post: #24   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

you saw what happened since morning. A 105 point rise from lows even though vix was rising till 10.40.
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yashrahul
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Post: #25   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

foundation was laid in the morning itself i had written a post at 9.45 where i mentioned that 5700 pe had added more than 5 lakh shares in oi in half hour of trade, the trade figures were known to the operators well in advance hence as u had mentioned correctly markets moved copybook style,very good vinay28 congrats being correct as always,thanks.
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vinay28
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Post: #26   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yashrahul wrote:
foundation was laid in the morning itself i had written a post at 9.45 where i mentioned that 5700 pe had added more than 5 lakh shares in oi in half hour of trade, the trade figures were known to the operators well in advance hence as u had mentioned correctly markets moved copybook style,very good vinay28 congrats being correct as always,thanks.


just two clarifications (a) I too go horribly wrong many times and (b) I am not a operator! Smile
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yashrahul
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Post: #27   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

how many times one goes wrong is what matters otherwise Going Horribly wrong is "being human" in markets and operators are species which are known to nobody but always exist(just like it is said about aliens 24 )
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vinay28
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Post: #28   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yashrahul wrote:
how many times one goes wrong is what matters otherwise Going Horribly wrong is "being human" in markets and operators are species which are known to nobody but always exist(just like it is said about aliens 24 )


Smile no, I am actually a fund! Laughing
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vinay28
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Post: #29   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pl check change in OI in 6100ce since morning.
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yashrahul
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Post: #30   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay28, 14.40 pm 6100 ce is showing an addition of 6,86,000 in oi, i don't have intraday data of the oi as i did it for 2 years every time i could but stopped it ever since multiples of 50 were introduced 2 months back,but 6100 ce oi has slowly increased from 2-3 lakhs to close to 7 lakhs with market rising,do you feel fiis and diis have all of sudden become so bullish at near 6000 level that they are selling 5700 pe and buying 6100 ce at the same time ?.i still feel aggressive call writers are writing 6100 ce and put writers are writing 5700 pe.
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