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Nifty View - Nov '16 Series
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Author Nifty View - Nov '16 Series
vinay28
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Post: #1   PostPosted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:26 pm    Post subject: Nifty View - Nov '16 Series Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (28/10/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8592/64/52/35/17/02 and 8450 while resistances are at about 8648/76/89, 8709/17/65 and 8783. 50 dsma/dema are at about 8712/8657 resp. while 20wsma is at about 8586. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8692/8520 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8649/8742 (if above 8609) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8260 and 7890 (if below 8594) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8365 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8565 while an IHnS can give about 8840 if nifty breaks and sustains above 8710.

Nifty opened gap down and fell to make a lower low but recovered to close +ve and above 8600. Daily candle is a hammer with strong but neutral volume and +ve div. Hence, further rise is likely. Hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying continues. On daily/weekly basis, Nifty must close above 8709/8683-94 to begin with while a close below 8520-08/8583-72 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #2   PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2016 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Sunday (30/10/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8620/02, 8590/62/48/20 and 8450 while resistances are at about 8647/72/84, 8705/17/60 and 8783. 50 dsma/dema are at about 8711/8657 resp. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8692/8520 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8626/51 (if above 8595) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8590 (if below 8650), 8260 and 7890 (if below 8594) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8365 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8565 while two IHnSs can give about 8700/8840 if nifty breaks and sustains above 8652/8710.

Nifty opened gap up and fell but recovered to close +ve and below 8650. Daily candle is again a hammer with strong +ve volume but weekly candle is bearish with strong -ve volume while monthly candle will mostly be a doji with strong +ve volume. This suggests a volatile nifty for some days but with +ve bias for the month. Hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying continues. Nifty must close above 8709 to begin with while a close below 8611 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #3   PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (01/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8597/73/65/02 and 8450 while resistances are at about 8649/69/92, 8707/17/65 and 8788. 50 dsma/dema are at about 8710/8656 resp. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8692/8520 resp. A +WW can give about 8653 (if above 8593) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8588 (if below 8652), 8260 and 7890 (if below 8594) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8365 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8565 while two IHnSs can give about 8700/8840 if nifty breaks and sustains above 8652/8710.

Nifty opened gap up and fell to close -ve above 8600. Daily volume is too low compared to range. Monthly candle is a doji with strong +ve volume. Hence, fall, if any, may be limited. Hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying continues. Nifty must close above 8709 to begin with while a close below 8615 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (02/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8599/77/65/52/33, 8493 and 8481 while resistances are at about 8635/51/64/87/99, 8730 and 8791. 50 dsma/dema are at about 8710/8655 resp. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8692/8520 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8676 (if above 8627) and 8760 (if above 8557) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8569 (if below 8655) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8365 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8565 while two IHnSs can give about 8700/8840 if nifty breaks and sustains above 8652/8710.

Nifty opened gap up but fell again to close -ve above 8600. Daily volume is surprisingly strong +ve and there is mild +ve div. Hence, further fall, if any, may be limited. Hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying continues. Nifty must close above 8709 to begin with while a close below 8615 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #5   PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (03/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8502, 8491/81/73/45 and 8340 while resistances are at about 8528/46/72/82, 8607/39/51/80 and 8692. 100 dsma/dema are at about 8568/8522 resp. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8627/8467 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8695 (if above 8540) and 8770 (if above 8496) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8260 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8250 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8500.

Nifty opened down with a huge gap up but could not recover and closed -ve above 8500. Daily volume is good -ve but there is mild +ve div and we may see some recovery before further fall, if any. Persistent hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying continues. Nifty must close above 8616 to begin with while a close below 8608 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (04/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8460/46/33 and 8341 while resistances are at about 8505/28/43/66/75, 8614/30 and 8651. 100 dsma/dema are at about 8571/8522 resp. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8627/8467 resp. Three +WWs can give about 8543/73 (if above 8487) and 8705 (if above 8535) and 8770 (if above 8496) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8260 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8250 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8500.

Nifty opened down with a gap, recovered smartly but couldn't sustain and fell to make a lower low before closing -ve below 8500, lowest close after 11/07. Daily volume is strong -ve and we may see some more fall. Persistent hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying starts. Nifty must close above 8584 to begin with while a close below 8467 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #7   PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Long term Lakshman Rekha drawn thru the famous gap of Aug'11. Unless nifty breaks and sustains above it, no hopes for bulls in near future.
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vinay28
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Post: #8   PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (07/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8383 and 8337 while resistances are at about 8451/97, 8505/28/55/75 and 8614. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8627/8323 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8545/75 (if above 8485) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8260 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8250 if nifty sustains below 8500.

Nifty opened up with a gap but tanked to close -ve above 8400. Daily volume is good -ve but surprisingly weekly volume is not commensurate with range. Hence, further fall, if any, may be limited. Strong hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying starts. Nifty must close above 8521 to begin with while a close below 8370 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #9   PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (08/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8481/62/45/28, 8340 and 8328 while resistances are at about 8510/49/64/95, 8607/51 and 8673. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8627/8323 resp. Three +WWs can give about 8549/77 (if above 8485) and 8726 (if above 8530) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8260 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8250 if nifty sustains below 8500.

Nifty opened up with a big gap but tanked to close -ve and below 8500. Daily volume is strong +ve and higher levels are likely. Strong hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying starts. Nifty must close above 8521 to begin with while a close below 8433 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #10   PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (09/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8523/01, 8491/80/43/31/17, 8373/40 and 8328 while resistances are at about 8580/89, 8600/12/20/47 and 8669. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8627/8433 resp. Three +WWs can give about 8579 (if above 8483), 8736 (if above 8528) and 8823 (if above 8480)(+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8435 (if below 8536) and 8260 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8250 if nifty sustains below 8500.

Nifty opened up with a gap, fell to make a lower low but reversed sharply to make a higher high before closing mildly +ve and well above 8500. Daily candle is a bullish engulfing, long legged doji with good +ve volume and higher levels are likely. Persistent strong hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying starts. Nifty must close above 8592 to begin with while a close below 8433 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as market is expected to make wild swings due to US elections.
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vinay28
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What Happens if No Candidate Receives 270 Electoral College Votes?
Published 9:42 pm EST, November 7, 2016 Updated 10:31 pm EST, November 7, 2016 1 Comment By Brendan Morrow

In this 2016 election scenario, neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton receives 270 Electoral College votes. (270toWin.com)

America is just hours away from choosing its next president, but as we know, winning a majority of votes doesn’t necessarily get a candidate elected. Rather, the contest comes down to winning states and their electors, and whoever reaches 270 votes in the Electoral College emerges victorious. It is actually possible for nobody to get that many votes, though. What happens in that scenario? Who becomes president?

As is outlined in the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, if both candidates fail to reach 270 electoral votes, the election goes to Congress. The newly-elected House of Representatives selects the president from the three individuals who received the most Electoral votes. This means that a third party candidate like Gary Johnson or Evan McMullin would technically be an option if they were able to win a state. Each state delegation gets one vote in the House contest, so it’s not as if all 435 members are voting individually. Instead, the whole state delegation gets a single vote for president.

Republicans currently control the House of Representatives, and Democrats are not expected to win it back this year, so the scenario where no one hits 270 would likely be good for Donald Trump unless there is some sort of Republican revolt against the nominee. After all, the state delegations have absolutely no obligation to vote for the person who won their state, so if Evan McMullin were to win Utah and therefore become eligible in the House contest, some delegations could theoretically rebel against Trump and pick McMullin instead. If the House can’t decide on a new president by the time Inauguration Day rolls around, the Vice President Elect will serve as president until the situation is resolved. If a vice president hasn’t been selected either, the speaker of the House serves as president for the time being.

Speaking of vice president, how is that person selected? Although the presidential contest goes to the House of Representatives when no candidate reaches 270 Electoral Votes, it’s the Senate that gets to choose the vice president if this occurs, with senators picking among the two individuals who received the most electors in the Electoral Congress. Each of the 100
senators gets a vote. Like the House, the Senate is also controlled by Republicans, with the GOP occupying 54 seats compared to the Democrats’ 44 seats. But it’s the new Senate that picks the vice president, not the old one, and there is a substantial chance that the Democrats will win back control of it this year. If that happens, we could be looking at a Donald Trump/Tim Kaine White House.

So how likely is this to happen? Not very, but it isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility. Here’s how it could work: Donald Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire, but Hillary Clinton wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia. With this map, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both have 269 Electoral College votes. Another possibility would be if Evan McMullin won Utah and by doing so denied both Trump and Clinton enough votes to get a majority. McMullin has found himself in the lead in some Utah polls, and he has made it explicitly clear that throwing the election to Congress is precisely his plan to become president. He’s betting on this happening and on House Republicans deciding to select an alternative to Donald Trump.

These are all pretty wild outcomes, though, and FiveThirtyEight calculates that there’s only a one percent chance of neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton reaching 270 Electoral College votes. They also forecast that there’s a 0.6 percent chance of an exact 269 to 269 tie.

No presidential candidate winning in the Electoral College has happened before, although not in modern times. The first time it occurred was in 1800, an election which was a battle between Thomas Jefferson, running with Aaron Burr, and John Adams, running with Charles Pinckney. Originally, Electoral College members would actually vote for two names for president, with the candidate who got the most votes becoming president and the
candidate who got the second most votes becoming vice president. In 1800, the Democratic-Republican electors wanted Thomas Jefferson to be president and Aaron Burr to be vice president. Their plan was to have everyone vote for Jefferson and Burr except for one man, who would vote for Thomas Jefferson but intentionally leave the second name blank instead of writing Burr. This would therefore guarantee that Jefferson came in exactly one vote ahead of Burr. But things did not go according to plan; all of the

Democratic-Republican electors ended up voting for both Jefferson and Burr, and the result was a tie. The election went to Congress, and after 35 unsuccessful votes, Jefferson was finally selected as president. It was specifically because of this disaster that the 12th Amendment was enacted.
No candidate received a majority of electors in the 1824 election either, and this was the only time the new system of throwing the election to Congress was actually utilized. There were four candidates running that year: John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, William Crawford and Henry Clay. Andrew Jackson received the most votes, but since these votes were split between all four candidates, nobody got a majority. When the election went into the House of Representatives, John Quincy Adams was chosen as president even though Andrew Jackson got more votes than he did. Jackson declared this a “corrupt bargain,” and he came back four years later to defeat John Quincy Adams in the 1828 election.
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Post: #12   PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:48 am    Post subject: Clinton? Trump? KYA FARAK? Reply with quote

Vinay: It is foolish on the part of Indians to read too much into Clinton win or Trump win.
INDIA IS CHILLAR FOR THE US! For days, NOTHING appears about India in major US newspapers like NYT. Even if by chance something appears on 15th page, it is likely to be about honor killing in Haryana, rape of female cop in UP, elephant walking on main street of Agra, etc = sensation type
We are so US AND GORA sensitive, that FOR YEARS a female (white obviously) stenographer in US State Dept used to walk into Delhi GoI offices advising central ministers. The Hindu, Madras tried to verify her, and her name wasnt even on a huge list of employees hung in entrance of State Dept, Washington DC. They were quietly advised by security that she may be a steno or chaprassi!
Let us quietly wait for madness to end, buy at reversal and make tons of money. Best of luck, everybody!
Cheers, Prakash Holla

UPDATE @ 1445: As expected by me, the entire 'anxiety' about US election was a HOGWASH to take the market down and get shares at attractive valuations! Already done 3 trades: autolitind, venkeys, sbin and looking to do 2 more, Cheers
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vinay28
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Post: #13   PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Clinton? Trump? KYA FARAK? Reply with quote

pkholla wrote:
Vinay: It is foolish on the part of Indians to read too much into Clinton win or Trump win. ...........


who cares Prakash. Once again power of a hedge was proven.
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vinay28
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (10/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8417, 8360/40/28, 8298 and 8256 while resistances are at about 8466/91, 8506/20/65 and 8610. 100 dsma/dema are at about 8583/18 resp. Unfilled gaps on higher side are at about 8544/8627. Three +WWs can give about 8567 (if above 8372) and 8581/8825 (if above 8481) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8351 (if below 8401) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened down with a massive gap but rose sharply later to close strongly +ve and well above 8400. Daily candle is extremely bullish and the largest since 18/05/09 and with +ve div. However, volume is -ve and we may see some fall, at least for consolidation. Persistent strong hidden bullish div can give sharp reversal only if sustained buying starts. Nifty must close above 8434/8544 to begin with while a close below 8323 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (11/11/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8496/81/72/52/28 and 8340 while resistances are at about 8540/50/66/84, 8609/30/38/51/62 and 8776. 100 dsma/dema are at about 8582/15 resp., 20 wsma is at about 8622 while 50 dema is at about 8615. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 8627/8432. Two +WWs can give about 8609 (if above 8546) and 8758 (if above 8523) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8505 (if below 8606) and 8420 (if below 8554) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened up with a big gap and rose only to fall sharply later to break morning low and closed -ve but above 8500 and above 100 dema. But daily volume is strong +ve. Hence, further fall, if any, may be limited. Also, weekly candle promises to be the largest hammer since Jan '08 if it close above 8358, which is highly likely. Nifty must close above 8434 to begin with but preferably above 8584/8616 while a close below 8433 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-geo-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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