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Nifty View - March '16 Series
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Author Nifty View - March '16 Series
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #31   PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AjitS wrote:
vinay28 wrote:


ritesh, I am mentally prepared for seeing 7760 by 31/3 and 8250/8375 by 11/4, unless about 7480/7350/7250 are broken successively or a close below 7485 and 7361.


Vinay,

Just to make sure ....
You mentioned "successively". So, (now that today's close is below 7485) only if tomorrow's close is below 7361, you will give up thought of "7760 by 31/3", Else that hope stays. Right?


Ajit, 7424 is another level on closing basis, which I forgot to mention. It doesn't have to close below 7361 tmrw only but it should not close higher (say above yesterday's high) before that. Also, even if it closes below 7361 tmrw or on thursday, chances of 7760 exit since there will still 9-10 days to go for expiry after thursday. Another likely target in that case can be 7640.

I feel about 7375/30 may be worst case unless about 7420 holds tmrw and reverses. But then market is supreme.
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vinay28
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Post: #32   PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 15/03.
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vinay28
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Post: #33   PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (16/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7447/34/24/14/04, 7391/68/59 and 7301 while resistances are at about 7489/97, 7508/23/66 and 7582. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7368 resp. 50 dma is at about 7370. Two +WWs can give about 7514 (if above 7464) and 7521 (if above 7476) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 7432/7395 (if below 7531) and 7314 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty fell sharply and closed well below 7500. Daily candle is bearish Marubuzo and confirmed Monday's evening star with strong -ve volume. Hence, further fall is expected. Nifty must close above 7539 to begin with while a close below 7361 can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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riteshucha
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Post: #34   PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thrusting pattern today???
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vinay28
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Post: #35   PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
thrusting pattern today???


Neither a perfect thrusting nor a piercing candle since it closed just above mid point of yesterday's candle. Important thing to see is (a) if tmrw is a big green candle (which I feel it may be) and (b) if so, whether the bullish trend continues after tmrw. Otherwise it can fall 5.92% from whatever the high. However, it is not at the end of a downtrend when this normally applies. I remember having a similar discussion long ago but don't remember when.
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amitagg
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Post: #36   PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

5.92 percent!?
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vinay28
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Post: #37   PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (17/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7468/47/30/20, 7393/65 and 7354 while resistances are at about 7526/39/76, 7619/26 and 7642. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7368 resp. 50 dma is at about 7365. Two +WWs can give about 7532 (if above 7473) and 7620 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). One -WW can give about 7391 (if below 7533) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7305 if nifty break below 7400 but gets nullified above 7548.

Nifty opened gap down and fell sharply but recovered smartly late in the day to close +ve and just below 7500. Daily candle is neither a perfect bullish Thrusting nor a Piercing one. However, volume was strong +ve and there is +ve div. Hence, we may see further rise. However, if nifty doesn't continue the uptrend after further rise on Thursday, if any, then it can fall again. Nifty must close above 7539 to begin with while a close below 7460 can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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vinay28
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Post: #38   PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
5.92 percent!?


yes amit but that's normally for a share price. % fall for index not established but one never knows. However, it also applies to such a candle at the bottom of a downtrend, which is not the case here.

That's why the need to close above 7602 for bulls to breathe easy.
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vinay28
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Post: #39   PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two charts attached. One for lower Lakshman Resha and other for break out line.
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vinay28
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Post: #40   PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 16/03.
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AMBY
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Post: #41   PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for updated charts with levels.
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riteshucha
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Post: #42   PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i was thinking 7612.90 NF should be touched... than the high which takes this out, if not broken by next 2 days, will look to sell...
or the low of the daily candle which breaks 7612.90, sell below that... either of the 2 cases....

thanks for your views...

vinay28 wrote:
riteshucha wrote:
thrusting pattern today???


Neither a perfect thrusting nor a piercing candle since it closed just above mid point of yesterday's candle. Important thing to see is (a) if tmrw is a big green candle (which I feel it may be) and (b) if so, whether the bullish trend continues after tmrw. Otherwise it can fall 5.92% from whatever the high. However, it is not at the end of a downtrend when this normally applies. I remember having a similar discussion long ago but don't remember when.
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vinay28
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Post: #43   PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (18/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7489/73/63/47/38/25/, 7396/68 and 7340 while resistances are at about 7520/32/49/75, 7620 and 7635. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7368 resp. 50/100 dma are at about 7359/7621 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7572 (if above 7526) and 7586 (if above 7535) and 7622 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). One -WW can give about 7390 (if below 7533) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened up with a big gap but fell sharply to close above 7500. Daily candle is like a spinning top or a likely evening star. However, volume was strong +ve and hence, any fall may be small. Nifty must close above 7539/64 on daily basis and above 7564 on weekly basis for further rise while a close below 7460 can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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vinay28
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Post: #44   PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 17/03.
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vinay28
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Post: #45   PostPosted: Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (21/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7574/50/34, 7480/47/24, 739176 and 7334 while resistances are at about 7642/57/70/83/98, 7721 and 7685. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7368 resp. 100 dma is at about 7614. Four +WWs can give about 7624/55 and 7711/33 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7429 (if below 7591) and 7385 (if below 7585) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened gap down, fell a bit and then rose sharply to close just above 7600. Weekly candle is a hanging man but with strong +ve volume. Therefore, next week's candle will be crucial. Nifty must close above 7762 for further rise while a close below 7538 can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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