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Nifty View - July '16 Series
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Author Nifty View - July '16 Series
pkholla
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Post: #31   PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
. And I wonder what some top view photos will reveal.

Putin is not publishing the fotos as they will only reveal SA women on the rooftops taking off their chaddor, Victoria's secret undergarments and then sunbathing!
(Highest sales of VS are in SA, BTW)
Till recently, US pardoned many SA sins like funding Paki plans, AQ, T etc, extreme Wahabi philosophy ... but now with oil around $45 (and likely to go down once more) and large reserves of shale oil in US/ Can, US can tell SA to go take a hike
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apka
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Post: #32   PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay, why do you anticipate a collapse in Saudi economy?
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vinay28
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Post: #33   PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
apka, I am aware of this. BTW it is going on for last 2 months. But real fun will begin on 11/9 (15th anniversary) when Putin reveals truth behind it thru satellite photos' evidence.

Incidentally, I feel Saudi economy will collapse as early as year end.


Is Putin going to? He's been threatening to since long.. And I wonder what some top view photos will reveal.


that's what he announced last week apka. let's see if he does. Incidentally, as you have mentioned, there is enough material on the net about conspiracy theory including statements by former CIA and FBI officials. Though I am sceptical of claims on BOTH sides, one particular video intrigued me. It clearly shows one of the planes firing a missile from its undercarriage just before an impact. I don't trust statements by any govt including our own though I accept they are often for secrecy reasons.

My feeling on Saudi (oil) economy is based on some info I have on how largest funds/banks, who have given FDI and/or huge loans to Saudi oil firms, sold oil in F&O for over a year from about 90$. A time will come soon when sustaining low oil price (note Saudi cost was 40$ 2 years ago and now is more, being very deep fields) will force Saudi oil firms to convert loans into equity. By then the funds will hold a majority and then they will start short covering. Saudi economy is now deeply stressed and elastic will snap soon.

I did mention in my earlier note about humongous derivative positions of large funds/banks.

BTW, according to an interesting and verified theory since 20s, though they seems to be no convincing logic, a country's economy collapses around the time it commissions the world's tallest building. This time, Saudi will commission one by end 16 or early 17.
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prakash_ks
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Post: #34   PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Vinay,
Your statement " .., a country's economy collapses around the time it commissions the world's tallest building. This time, Saudi will commission one by end 16 or early 17." .. is really some thing very interesting to read .. 2guns 40
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apka
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Post: #35   PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's exactly how I feel regarding the 9/11 subject. There are some issues that have been resolved or can be answered by logic. But some like you mentioned the missile flash, I know! You can see a flash before the first plane hits too when slowed down. Some persons testimonies have been omitted like a senior person at pentagon said a personnel came asked for instructions when he informed plane is 50 miles out, and VP ordered do nothing. Many reported blasts including wtc janitor, fireman and molten steel found weeks later. But US scrapped all evidence n said they didnt look for explosives cuz they didnt think there were any! So I am also on the fence just waiting to know.

Interesting info on Saudi and tallest building thing.. Can we expect another world crisis if that happens or this one will be easier to face for the rest of the world?
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vinay28
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Post: #36   PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
.......... Can we expect another world crisis if that happens or this one will be easier to face for the rest of the world?


Saudi alone may not cause a crisis but a series of related or unrelated events can. Depends on who sinks along with SA. But imagine the exodus of immigrants from Saudi and middle east.
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vinay28
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Post: #37   PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (19/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8464/31/19, 8387/56 and 8324 while resistances are at about 8533/58/89, 8608 and 8627. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 8707/8467. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8446 (if below 8520), 8380 (if below 8525) and 8287 (if below 8563) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8320 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8525.

Nifty opened gap up but fell later to make a lower low to close -ve and above 8500. Daily volume is not strong -ve and further fall, if any, may not be major. Nifty must close above 8589 to begin with while a close below 8467 may cause some fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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EssJay
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Post: #38   PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow, didn't know all this...thanks apka, vinay
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vinay28
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Post: #39   PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (20/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8511/03, 8487/65/49/31/19/04 and 8372 while resistances are at about 8558/81, 8615/25 and 8636. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 8707/8467. A +WW can give about 8545 (if above 8484) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8444 (if below 8522), 8378 (if below 8527) and 8286 (if below 8573) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8320 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8525.

Nifty opened up with a small gap up, fell to make a lower low and rose sharply to close +ve and above 8500. Daily candle is a hammer and volume is good +ve. However, there is now a hidden bearish div between last two candles and we may see further fall unless 8587 is taken out. Nifty must close above 8589 to begin with while a close below 8467 may cause some fall. Tuesday was a NR4 day and we may see a big move. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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AjitS
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Post: #40   PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
I feel today or tmrw, nifty should fall 130 from high. If so, it will signal the downtrend.


Vinay,
Your above comment was on 14th. NIFTY has not yet fallen to the extent since then. Do you still see some big fall in next couple of days?
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vinay28
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Post: #41   PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AjitS wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
I feel today or tmrw, nifty should fall 130 from high. If so, it will signal the downtrend.


Vinay,
Your above comment was on 14th. NIFTY has not yet fallen to the extent since then. Do you still see some big fall in next couple of days?


yes, ajit, I still feel it is possible. Note that NS hasn't made a higher high after 15th. It didn't cross 8587.10 today. So hidden bearish div remains. Even if it is crossed tmrw, we will have to see if the div still remains in which case, it must also cross 8594.80. That will remove short term bearish div. Then I will be worried if NS first closes above 8589 but if it also closes above 8634 then chances of a sizeable fall diminish dramatically.

I feel nifty is on the verge of a big move. Let's see which side.
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vinay28
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Post: #42   PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (21/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8546/26/11, 8489/66/46/31/18 and 8373 while resistances are at about 8577/93, 8602/28/63 and 8675. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are at about 8707/8467. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 8521 (if below 8561), 8442 (if below 8524), 8399 (if below 8541) and 8284 (if below 8585) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8320 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8525.

Nifty opened down with a small gap up but rose to close +ve and above 8550. Daily volume is good +ve. However, the hidden bearish div remains and we may a fall soon unless 8588/95 is reached. Nifty must close above 8589 to begin with while a close below 8467 may cause some fall. A big move is imminent. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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riteshucha
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Post: #43   PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hii vinay,

if 8595 is spot is not crossed, today and tomm could be the days when u see a good fall.??????...
stoch and macd both have turned flat on daily and on the verge of a down crossover....
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vinay28
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Post: #44   PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
hii vinay,

if 8595 is spot is not crossed, today and tomm could be the days when u see a good fall.??????...
stoch and macd both have turned flat on daily and on the verge of a down crossover....


Sorry ritesh, saw your post now. you saw what happened today. However, it doesn't mean 8595 won't be crossed again. It always depend on liquidity which incidentally was strong -ve today. BTW, I mentioned today and tmrw just in case nifty remained in a range. now it seems more fall may happen. I will post my daily post soon.
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manojkr78
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Post: #45   PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay,

July13-23 period high/low so far 8595/8475......23rd no trading, would you consider the next trading day on account???
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