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Nifty View - April '16 Series
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Author Nifty View - April '16 Series
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #16   PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Parag.Sanghvi wrote:
Vinay, u had a grt prediction.. U said that market will rise, bcoz of sum other mrkts, nifty cusnt rise as per ur expectation bt closed at higher level with 46points gain.. Hats off dear..


tks parag
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Parag.Sanghvi
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Joined: 03 Feb 2016
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Post: #17   PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
.........We need to see 7800 crossed. If that happens, it's buy on dips and it can dip to as much as 7680/7700. Targets can be about 8175/8250/8375. Break out only if it sustains above about 8450, which I doubt as of now. BTW, all this may happen in just 10 days.


7800 was not crossed and it went down to 7666. Though it could go down further to as much as 7620/7580/7550, I doubt it as of now.



My pleasure vinay nd u r again done with ur levels as u told me and u 2nd tgt almost done today with the low of 7588..

Superb workout bro..
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vinay28
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Post: #18   PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (06/04/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7578/46/32/14 and 7492 while resistances are at about 7746/94 and 7700. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7759/7512 resp. 100 dma is at about 7574. Three +WWs can give about 7646 (if above 7607), 7705 (if above 7620) and 7762 (if above 7648) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7328 (if below 7586) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8000 if nifty remains above 7580.

Nifty opened gap down and tanked to close just above 7600. Daily candle is big, bearish Marubuzo but volume is not commensurate. Also, thee is strong bullish div on lower TF and hence we may see some recovery after a small further fall, if any. Bearish div will give results only if sustained selling continues. Nifty must now close above 7717 to continue the rally while a close below 7597 may cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #19   PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 05/04.
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vinay28
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Post: #20   PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (07/04/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7601, 7589/77/65/14/06 and 7492 while resistances are at about 7628/41/65/71/94 and 7751. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7759/7512 resp. 100 dma is at about 7571. Two +WWs can give about 7650 (if above 7598) and 7739 (if above 7641) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7319 (if below 7591) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8000 if nifty remains above 7575. A HnS can give about 7485 if nifty breaks down below 7588.

Nifty opened gap up, couldn't sustain and made a near double bottom before closing -ve but above 7600. Daily candle is small and non-descript but with good +ve volume. The strong bullish div on lower TF continues and hence we may see some recovery after a small further fall, if any. Bearish div on higher TF will give results only if sustained selling continues. Nifty must now close above 7717 to continue the rally while a break of 7575 and a close below 7597 may cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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apka
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Post: #21   PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In last 2 weeks, Apr fut high at 7815 had OI of 188 lakhs, which has dropped to 157 lakhs today with a low of near 7550. The loss of OI instead of build up suggests trend is not in favour of shorting, maybe 7420 or so spot at the max on downside and then we should see upside again.
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amitagg
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Post: #22   PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
In last 2 weeks, Apr fut high at 7815 had OI of 188 lakhs, which has dropped to 157 lakhs today with a low of near 7550. The loss of OI instead of build up suggests trend is not in favour of shorting, maybe 7420 or so spot at the max on downside and then we should see upside again.


reigniting- how about if we go straight to 7200 or 6600? mutual fund investments will erode in value.

I had mentioned in Vinays forum for previous months once that we would be sideways MONTHLY entire 2016 and that's what's happening. one of long term trendline have broken and hence this was a only retrace. (1000 points irrespective from 6800)

so let's go back to 7200 at least

true on gann chart, 7396 is very important resistance which broke up but for me NO bull market since 7744 was not broken decisively. hence let's see whether we land up below 7396 (with some filter) or sideways between 7400-7800......... I do not expect break above 8130 in any case and possibly 7980....... so let's continue to earn profits with shorts without anticipating a reversal still....

time will and will be killed.. we would come back after an year and see these levels still..... I have no issues with that.

if I replicate 2008/9 or 2011 falls see index falling to 6600 rising 8200 falling 7200 etc. and making you first and me later very tired indeed! all the best for your investments..... good bye.
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vinay28
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Post: #23   PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 07/04.
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riteshucha
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Post: #24   PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2016 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

my two bit vinay.. pls do give your inputs... bappa sir, your inputs also pls...

week ending 8th april confirmed previous week hanging man pattern with close below last week's low(i,.e 1st april)... hence, below fridays low, 7386/7290 NS is coming i feel...
on daily TF, a bearish 3/15 co happened on thursday, hence again lower levels are likley

further,
a)fridays candle looks like a thrusting (with close above thursday's close but below its mid point, although opened a tad above thursdays low)... hence we need a lower close on monday to confirm this...

b)if on the flip side, we get a green close on monday, hoping for it to close above 7631 min for another 100 points upside, to kill the weak bears...

assuming if b) happens, the gap at 7758-7736 should now act as a big big resistance, which can a good area to short with STOP as 7778 or 7815 NF (Jt's buy level)....

Ritesh
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vinay28
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Post: #25   PostPosted: Sun Apr 10, 2016 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (11/04/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7514/05, 7493/40 and 7422 while resistances are at about 7569/96, 7607/32 and 7694. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7759/7512 resp. 100 dma is at about 7566. Two +WWs can give about 7608 (if above 7527) and 7650 (if above 7553) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7332 (if below 7640) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8000 if nifty remains above 7575. A HnS can give about 7485 if nifty continues to go down. Falling wedge BO can give 7700+ above 7560 but a "false" BD can give 7440 below 7510.

Nifty remained in a narrow range and closed above 7550 but below 100 dma. Daily candle is like a doji with good +ve volume and +ve div. Weekly candle is bearish but volume is not commensurate and there is bullish div. Bearish div being mentioned for last few days gave a 250 point fall and now if sustained buying resumes, the bullish will take nifty higher. Friday's range was narrowest since Dec and we may see a big range next week. Nifty must now close above 7597 to begin with while a close below 7538 can start fresh fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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bappa1971
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Post: #26   PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:21 am    Post subject: hi Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
my two bit vinay.. pls do give your inputs... bappa sir, your inputs also pls...

week ending 8th april confirmed previous week hanging man pattern with close below last week's low(i,.e 1st april)... hence, below fridays low, 7386/7290 NS is coming i feel...
on daily TF, a bearish 3/15 co happened on thursday, hence again lower levels are likley

further,
a)fridays candle looks like a thrusting (with close above thursday's close but below its mid point, although opened a tad above thursdays low)... hence we need a lower close on monday to confirm this...

b)if on the flip side, we get a green close on monday, hoping for it to close above 7631 min for another 100 points upside, to kill the weak bears...

assuming if b) happens, the gap at 7758-7736 should now act as a big big resistance, which can a good area to short with STOP as 7778 or 7815 NF (Jt's buy level)....

Ritesh



Good morning vinay and ritesh.....and as per ritesh's post i am placing a view in ur thread with u due respect to u vinay...
ritesh, i feel 7575 and 7542 can b the important numbers this week
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vinay28
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Post: #27   PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (12/04/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7633/19, 7563 and 7514 while resistances are at about 7709/31/50 and 7787. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7759/7512 resp. 100 dma is at about 7566. Three +WWs can give about 7753/89 and 7801 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8000 if nifty remains above 7575. A falling wedge BO can give 7700+ above 7560.

Nifty opened up with a gap, went down to fill it but suddenly surged in the afternoon and closed well above 7650 and above well above 100 dma. Nifty must close above 7759 to continue the rally while a close below 7546 can start fresh fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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amitagg
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Post: #28   PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 9:33 pm    Post subject: Re: hi Reply with quote

bappa1971 wrote:
riteshucha wrote:
my two bit vinay.. pls do give your inputs... bappa sir, your inputs also pls...

week ending 8th april confirmed previous week hanging man pattern with close below last week's low(i,.e 1st april)... hence, below fridays low, 7386/7290 NS is coming i feel...
on daily TF, a bearish 3/15 co happened on thursday, hence again lower levels are likley

further,
a)fridays candle looks like a thrusting (with close above thursday's close but below its mid point, although opened a tad above thursdays low)... hence we need a lower close on monday to confirm this...

b)if on the flip side, we get a green close on monday, hoping for it to close above 7631 min for another 100 points upside, to kill the weak bears...

assuming if b) happens, the gap at 7758-7736 should now act as a big big resistance, which can a good area to short with STOP as 7778 or 7815 NF (Jt's buy level)....

Ritesh



Good morning vinay and ritesh.....and as per ritesh's post i am placing a view in ur thread with u due respect to u vinay...
ritesh, i feel 7575 and 7542 can b the important numbers this week


So that the numbers were respected today, is it up now!?
Or will it or expected to fall again and then test the numbers again
Are we out of the woods!?
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bappa1971
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Post: #29   PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:00 am    Post subject: Re: hi Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
bappa1971 wrote:
riteshucha wrote:
my two bit vinay.. pls do give your inputs... bappa sir, your inputs also pls...

week ending 8th april confirmed previous week hanging man pattern with close below last week's low(i,.e 1st april)... hence, below fridays low, 7386/7290 NS is coming i feel...
on daily TF, a bearish 3/15 co happened on thursday, hence again lower levels are likley

further,
a)fridays candle looks like a thrusting (with close above thursday's close but below its mid point, although opened a tad above thursdays low)... hence we need a lower close on monday to confirm this...

b)if on the flip side, we get a green close on monday, hoping for it to close above 7631 min for another 100 points upside, to kill the weak bears...

assuming if b) happens, the gap at 7758-7736 should now act as a big big resistance, which can a good area to short with STOP as 7778 or 7815 NF (Jt's buy level)....

Ritesh



Good morning vinay and ritesh.....and as per ritesh's post i am placing a view in ur thread with u due respect to u vinay...
ritesh, i feel 7575 and 7542 can b the important numbers this week


So that the numbers were respected today, is it up now!?
Or will it or expected to fall again and then test the numbers again
Are we out of the woods!?


With due respect to vinay, today will be watching and trading with 7666/76 and 7689/96 numbers,,,, (flexible trading on both sides with no mind set amitagg bhai)
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vinay28
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Post: #30   PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

amit/bappa, it may react to 7633/12 and if it doesn't sustain below 7580, I feel my targets will come.
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