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Meaning of NR7 pattern !
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Author Meaning of NR7 pattern !
Pats
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Post: #16   PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

and this 2nd one is the long....., full 10Y span, see the upper levels of Nifty in last 10Yrs, so for Bulls and bears - both it can be a "To Be or Not To Be" dilemma..
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amitagg
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Post: #17   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dilemma all the time..at 5200..5550...5850...6200 and even if it falls 200 points to 5950 dilemma whether again range 6200-5500 trade OR just a reaction to upmove and further breakout above 6200 to 6500/6900 possible.
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rk_a2003
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Post: #18   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I looked at the same chart on Monthly time frame.Look at it for more clarity and for multiple thoughts.This month candle which is still in the making is unique in so many ways(In 10 years) and provide equally favorable arguments for Bulls as well as for Bears. Laughing
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Post: #19   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
Well, I looked at the same chart on Monthly time frame.
~SNIP~
equally favorable arguments for Bulls as well as for Bears. Laughing


Hi rk,
Thnks for the chart, I had already observed Nifty-10Y on Wkly and Mthly TF, but these ones are just for the newbees ! The point was to watch the higher tops made during the long time span and also to show the historic lows like 1000 to 3000 and the eventual breakouts in the bigger highs there-after.

@amit,
So you have also noticed the bulls/bears dilemma !
Smile
By the way, SL of my Sept-6100CEs 2-lots got hit @85, exited in profit.
After RBI policy, again baught Sept-6100-CE 1-lot @23 and baught Nov-5000-PEs 2-lots @35, just as a Diwali or X-mass breakfast !
Not worried, if CEs and PEs finished worthless, due to Sept profits !
Best Luck !
Smile
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vinay28
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Post: #20   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
Well, I looked at the same chart on Monthly time frame.Look at it for more clarity and for multiple thoughts.This month candle which is still in the making is unique in so many ways(In 10 years) and provide equally favorable arguments for Bulls as well as for Bears. Laughing


you are right rk. such a strong monthly candle has never been in a downtrend. Even on weekly, a close today below 5992 only makes it a doji.
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amitagg
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Post: #21   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i wrote "Dilemma all the time..at 5200..5550...5850...6200 and even if it falls 200 points to 5950 dilemma whether again range 6200-5500 trade OR just a reaction to upmove and further breakout above 6200 to 6500/6900 possible. "...it just happened today....now what!
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vinay28
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Post: #22   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
i wrote "Dilemma all the time..at 5200..5550...5850...6200 and even if it falls 200 points to 5950 dilemma whether again range 6200-5500 trade OR just a reaction to upmove and further breakout above 6200 to 6500/6900 possible. "...it just happened today....now what!


for the time being, why not think of only 6900 (or more)? Smile

It's always a matter of levels (prices).
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Post: #23   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
i wrote "Dilemma all the time..at 5200..5550...5850...6200 and even if it falls 200 points to 5950 dilemma whether again range 6200-5500 trade OR just a reaction to upmove and further breakout above 6200 to 6500/6900 possible. "...it just happened today....now what!


On Sept 19, 2013 at 8:39 pm, I had said, "It seems, on 20th Sept, market may give intraday chances for both sides upward and downward. Using the knowledge of Nifty movements along with proper RSI levels, one can get quick profits even if market remains choppy or RB."...,
...and exactly the same happened, plenty of opportunities on both sides were available and encahsed by many, hopefully !

On Sept 19, 2013 at 3:19 pm, I had also said, "The dare-devils must not get trapped to initiate shorts in hurry, wait and watch is the Mantra for the newbees ! But generally, 1-2-3 steps (Up-Dn-Up) are repeated in history, I think !"...
...and here also same thing happened i.e. 1-2-3 (Up-Down-Up), 1st step was UP Y'day, today was Down (Closing basis), and hopefully, Monday may be up (Depends on new-flows) !

I had posted my trades today, Nov-5000PEs is not the worry tor the time being, but Sept-6100-CEs are in the profits. Also many other experts have given decent calls (PE and CE both).
Hope, you may have benefited from these calls !

Even if not, no problem ! Major events are finished, and one can make calculated moves now, as expiry week gives plenty of up-down surprises for the traders.
Best Luck !
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Post: #24   PostPosted: Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just for newbees:
Often I think, there must be some safe investment way for the new investors or those investors who has no time to monitor their investments on daily basis or intraday basis. In current situation, we do'nt know which stock may collapse suddently due to Heavy Debt burden ( Dollar denominated - many Metal Stocks for eq. or Rs denominated like Kingfisher ALines etc.).
I wanted some ways not to invest in the all index stocks, so I used NiftyBees - available on NSE. Whenever market nose-dive below certain level, I started accumulating NiftyBees in small chunks - eq 5 qty at a time. I do it now also - i.e. I invest some of my profit earned every mnth here ! So now I have 35 qty NiftyBees avg price @537 !
I also have just 5 qty of GoldBees as well ! When-ever I think market is heading stiff dnward fall, I may encash all, as I always do periodically.

This way, you have your profits/capital locked in safely, at the same time, no worry abt individual company's corporate governance issues/debts and no tension abt Time Decay / Volatilty in options - whichever way market goes ! Another way is - off-course Mutual Funds, for some fees charged by them !
Caution: Current market is already at highs, so buy on sufficient dips in niftybees is much better strategy. As usual, consult your Investment Advisor before investment on any suggestion !
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Post: #25   PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those newbees, who are interested in the F&O (Future and Options) are often confused abt the terms. In Futures, the investor requires a lot of money to play the game, so we will concentrate on Options only.
Nifty options are far more better than Stock Options, b'cause Nifty options are having plenty of liquidity i.e. lot of buyers and sellers are available, so the investor is not stuck with the trade, but barring a few stocks like RIL, RCOM INFY etc, there can be a big diff. in bid (Buy/Sell) rates.
In buying options, the chances of loss is limited with un-limited profits. But here, I am not explaining the whole tutorial, as lots of F&O utorials are available on the net (may-be in icharts also), but I am trying to explain the importance of Bull Spread!

B'cause in current situation, where Nifty is reached to much higher levels, but we do'nt know, whether market will rise further or slip dnward, but still many expert expect some more steam is left in the bull-run. In such cases, a Bull-Spread may be a better strategy to deploy !

In Bull spread, we expect the Nifty to rise further, but we want to limit our losses and still want to earn some profits, if possible. So to short the concept, we can buy At-The_Money (ATM) or In-The_Money (ITM) call option and sell a higher call option to decrease the risk and at the same time to minimize the invested money. This is called a Bull Spread !

Suppose Taking current (20-09-2013) Nifty value, 6012 as Underlying value, if we buy (ATM) Sept-6000CE 1-lot @90.40 (Close value), then we may sell (OTM) Sept-6100CE 1-lot @39.90 (CV).

So the total investment in Nifty option is now, ( 90.40 x 50 ) 4520 minus ( 39.90 x 50 ) 1995 = 2525 only, intead of 4520.

Now if Nifty goes up, call value of 6000CE will increase more in comparison to the call value of 6100CE, as long as Nifty remains below 6100. And one can encash the diff. btw both the calls as net profit. There are more interesting Bull Spread, Ratio Spread, Ladders etc advance strategies, but this is suffice to put some interest in the Novice Traders, and also newbees may learn what went wrong, when they expect increase in call option value, but instead they see big fall in the CE's value !

Note: Brokerage and Other Charges are not considered to keep the maths simple.
Caution: This strategy best works in the begining days ( first 15 days ) of the mnth/expiry. Also to sell a call, one requires more funds as margin money in the trading a/c.

There is also Bear Spread strategy available for those who expect the other way !

Hope this helps someone !
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Post: #26   PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Although, Chances of Nifty going 6000 or 5700 is equal and OI data today also points to same range. But the confirmed down trend can only be optimized, if Nifty Spot closes below 5750 for the dnward targets of 5680, 5580.

On the other hand, close above 6150, can lead us to 6240, and then towards 6380 onward. And as I mentioned in earlier post, for a sustainable rally, 1 or 2 downward movement towards 5730 and/or 5680 to fill-up the gaps is necessary.

Also note that, upward jerney is always in mm. and cm. but dnward jump can be in mtr. and deci-mtrs ! In 1-2-3 steps, Up-Dn is completed, but if 3rd step - Up is not completed tmr i.e. on 24t, then it can be disastrous, for the Bull Run !
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rk_a2003
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Post: #27   PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pats wrote:
Although, Chances of Nifty going 6000 or 5700 is equal and OI data today also points to same range. But the confirmed down trend can only be optimized, if Nifty Spot closes below 5750 for the dnward targets of 5680, 5580.

On the other hand, close above 6150, can lead us to 6240, and then towards 6380 onward. And as I mentioned in earlier post, for a sustainable rally, 1 or 2 downward movement towards 5730 and/or 5680 to fill-up the gaps is necessary.

Also note that, upward jerney is always in mm. and cm. but dnward jump can be in mtr. and deci-mtrs ! In 1-2-3 steps, Up-Dn is completed, but if 3rd step - Up is not completed tmr i.e. on 24t, then it can be disastrous, for the Bull Run !


Pats in general what you said is right. But recent upward move was at 85 degrees angle and in meters and kilometers. I pointed out this exception in one of my post; that’s one reason for me to conclude that correction is imminent (which is still on)and also that is one reason for me to think that market may reach new highs in future.Now my dilemma is where to book shorts and when to go long?I may employ a trailing SAR method.
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Post: #28   PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:

Pats in general what you said is right. But recent upward move was at 85 degrees angle and in meters and kilometers. I pointed out this exception in one of my post; that’s one reason for me to conclude that correction is imminent (which is still on)and also that is one reason for me to think that market may reach new highs in future.Now my dilemma is where to book shorts and when to go long?I may employ a trailing SAR method.


Hi rk,
You are the master of your own trades !
But if I had the positions as mentioned by you and if the trades were of Sept Series, then I would have booked 50% profits if more lots, and booked 100% profits if onlya single lot.
If the positions were in Oct or far mnths series then would not have bothered, would have waited with proper TSL of assumed loss of 20% in "Profita" !
I am long in Sept Series - only 1-lot 6000SP and have 2-lots in Oct 5400PE.
Thinking taking position (long/short) in Nov series, But Smart Money do exactly opp. of what the common man thinks!
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rk_a2003
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Post: #29   PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi pats,

My shorts were in October NF taken around 6150 and I am in no hurry to book them as I already booked partial profits. Laughing
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Post: #30   PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
Hi pats,

My shorts were in October NF taken around 6150 and I am in no hurry to book them as I already booked partial profits. Laughing


See what I said just minutes back, Smart Money thinks just opposite to what common man thinks.
You Smart Guy !
Congrats for the Smart Profits !
Smile

Last Day of the expiry will be very interesting, Imagine Why !
Wink
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