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Market Sentiment
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Post: #1126   PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun08 wrote:

IMHO, it may not last long. Let's see EOD next Friday how much they move.


Probably already over...

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Post: #1127   PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
60% of Nifty and 70% of Nifty500 stocks record ‘Death Cross’ on daily charts


Yeah, stocks have been hammered like crazy already. Happy for long term investors who know what they are doing, they will be looking forward to great time picking up undervalued great stocks at lower levels.

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Post: #1128   PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 19th Sep 2019

Short term & medium term starting to rolldown. Would be eager to see if the bottom holds or we continue to go down from here.

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Post: #1129   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Sun08 wrote:

IMHO, it may not last long. Let's see EOD next Friday how much they move.


Probably already over...


Quarterly candle same as jan-march 08 candle. very painful future for next 12 months. there will be bear market rallies, some very sharp, to give hopes but my bearishness for a few months is only strengthened. two such rallies came after breaking 10771 and fizzled out. there can be more but I have no hopes.
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Post: #1130   PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun08 wrote:
Quarterly candle same as jan-march 08 candle. very painful future for next 12 months. there will be bear market rallies, some very sharp, to give hopes but my bearishness for a few months is only strengthened. two such rallies came after breaking 10771 and fizzled out. there can be more but I have no hopes.


within few minutes of my post, a vicious rally Smile
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Post: #1131   PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi ST .. where does the data stand now?

A useful piece of data that there are only 3 occasions 2008-09 , 2013-14 and 2018-19 when the small cap index has delivered returns lower than Nifty.. good time to invest in and buy small caps
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Post: #1132   PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
hi ST .. where does the data stand now?

A useful piece of data that there are only 3 occasions 2008-09 , 2013-14 and 2018-19 when the small cap index has delivered returns lower than Nifty.. good time to invest in and buy small caps


Nothing is happening Very Happy All data is pointing to current period being a great period for long term investment. But until when we will be in this period of sideways to down is anyone's guess. The rolling returns of various indexes too continue to point to great returns ahead (long term). Near term what we are witnessing are crazy moves!!!

Attaching the current breadth oscillator chart below. Just confirms current grind....

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Post: #1133   PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks ST.. I feel the volatile phase will be over by next week max if not this week and new leg of upmove has begun which will pickup pace slowly. From last 3-4 sessions we are making previous closing price as next day's low and breaking previous sessions high and giving higher closing also. This is a classic sign of change.
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Post: #1134   PostPosted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
Thanks ST.. I feel the volatile phase will be over by next week max if not this week and new leg of upmove has begun which will pickup pace slowly. From last 3-4 sessions we are making previous closing price as next day's low and breaking previous sessions high and giving higher closing also. This is a classic sign of change.


If it's working this way then today's low done at 11434 spot now .. yesterday's closing level was 11429 .. and 11510 should come later in the day.
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Post: #1135   PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So far so good.. again higher high higher low higher closing .. also brexit deal is done - uncertainty gone
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Post: #1136   PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi ST .. new highs made ST in main indexes .. any change in oscillators?
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Post: #1137   PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
Hi ST .. new highs made ST in main indexes .. any change in oscillators?


Here is NSE breadth oscillator chart as on 4th Dec 2019. It is more or less flat. We all know that indexes are at near highs due to handful of stocks so the highs are more or less meaningless. The main chunk of mid & small cap stocks that have got hammered to pulp have to form bases and start rallying for a broad rally to take shape. Both mid & small cap indexes are down and are not showing bullish signs yet. That has to change. The lack lusture breadth indicates the same. Breadth oscillator indicates a more or less flat market at least as of now.

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Post: #1138   PostPosted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 3rd Jan 2020

Significant change in market breadth, maybe because mid and small cap stocks have rallied significantly. Both medium term and long term breadth shooting up. I see this as a positive sign for the market.

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Post: #1139   PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My post turned out to be a great contrary signal Mr. Green The extent of this down move and how breadth behaves will give a clue as to how good the breadth recovery was. Would be interesting to watch it for the next few days...
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Post: #1140   PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

while I expect about 11700, sustaining below that can be bad.
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