Home
Services Offered
Payment Details
My Services
Contact Us
Market Heatmap
Charts
Charts (Premium)
Chart Watch
JCharts (EOD)
JCharts(EOD-COMM)
HCharts (EOD)
HCharts (EOD-COMM)
Forum
Stock Lists
Screener (EOD)
Screener (EOD-Comm)
Breadth Charts
Calculators
Education
Links
FAQs
Search
Advertise Here
Charts (Old)
Login Form





Lost Password?
No account yet? Register
  iCharts Discussions

 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Market Sentiment
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 73, 74, 75, 76  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iCharts Discussions Forum Index -> SwingTrader's Corner
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Market Sentiment
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1096   PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

manojkr78 wrote:
ST,

Please update the breadth oscillator chart.

Manoj


Here you go.....

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 25th Jun 2019

Possible up move starting as short term oscillator has turned up.


*** NOTE *** Both short & medium term oscillators are near bottom. As I have pointed out few times before, this is usually a good time for adding to your long term mutual fund & ETF holdings. Not a recommendation, just a suggestion.

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
apka
Black Belt
Black Belt


Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6069

Post: #1097   PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey ST, how does it look after yesterday's weekly close?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1098   PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
Hey ST, how does it look after yesterday's weekly close?


Here it is:

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 28th Jun 2019

Short term breadth has shot up during the recent run up. Medium and long term breadth too ticking up. Based on short term breadth, we seem to have some upside left in the short term before a short term correction which could just be a consolidation. The trend looks to be sideways to up as of now based on medium and long term breadth. Just my opinion.

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
apka
Black Belt
Black Belt


Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6069

Post: #1099   PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks .. i agree too.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1100   PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NIFTY500 Index Rolling Returns

Please see the chart attached below. Nifty 500 index is charted along with the index's rolling returns. Red line is the yearly rolling return and green line is the quarterly rolling return.

It has been observed that when yearly rolling returns fall below quarterly rolling returns (blue circles on the chart), it indicates extended period of pessimism and could indicate coming market bottom. Vice versa, if yearly rolling returns rise too sharply and diverge too much from quarterly rolling returns then it indicates period of over optimism and could warrant caution (red circles on teh chart).

Currently, there doesn't seem to be too much optimism. The over optimism we had seem in 2017 up until early 2018 has been dissipated. We had seen tiny pockets of pessimism in early 2019 and May 2019.

Please use your own analysis on top of this. Also, note that this chart is suitable for long term investors who would like to position their portfolio with the coming tide.

*** NO RECOMMENDATION. THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY ***

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
apka
Black Belt
Black Belt


Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6069

Post: #1101   PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's very interesting info. Any other indices or charts you have then do share.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1102   PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apka,

Here is Midcap index rolling returns chart...

Midcap index yearly rolling returns are below quarterly returns since Jan 2019. Midcaps seem to have taken a big beating and it could be time for them to start moving up.

One other point I get from these charts is that they are useful to initiate long term holdings but the charts can't be used for exiting portfolios in anticipation of a decline. Markets continue to move up for a long time after there is over optimism. Eg. See 2003-2007 period, yearly returns were above quarterly returns for the whole time. So no indication of decline is given by the charts. Whereas once they dropped below quarterly returns in Oct 2008, things began to improve for the market within months. Still, there is lot of lead time and one can time markets using these charts but for long term investors this chart could be very useful.

BTW I had restricted data on NIFTY500 index chart so the chart is more clear, will later post the whole chart as one should get the full perspective.

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
apka
Black Belt
Black Belt


Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6069

Post: #1103   PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cool thank you ST
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1104   PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saw this on Twitter today, somebody had posted it this morning....

3 yrs rolling returns chart of indexes.

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Sun08
White Belt
White Belt


Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 315

Post: #1105   PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
NIFTY500 Index Rolling Returns

Please see the chart attached below. Nifty 500 index is charted along with the index's rolling returns. Red line is the yearly rolling return and green line is the quarterly rolling return.

It has been observed that when yearly rolling returns fall below quarterly rolling returns (blue circles on the chart), it indicates extended period of pessimism and could indicate coming market bottom. Vice versa, if yearly rolling returns rise too sharply and diverge too much from quarterly rolling returns then it indicates period of over optimism and could warrant caution (red circles on teh chart).

Currently, there doesn't seem to be too much optimism. The over optimism we had seem in 2017 up until early 2018 has been dissipated. We had seen tiny pockets of pessimism in early 2019 and May 2019.

Please use your own analysis on top of this. Also, note that this chart is suitable for long term investors who would like to position their portfolio with the coming tide.

*** NO RECOMMENDATION. THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY ***


note sequentially higher lows
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1106   PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun08 wrote:


....

note sequentially higher lows


Yes, true.

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1107   PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 9th July 2019

Scenario changes completely for the short-to-intermediate term. For long term investors, it continues to get better as scenario gets closer to the 2013 sort of market where they can acquire stocks at great valuations for long term. We are not there yet but we keep getting closer. Manual "SIPers" will probably get another chance where both short term and medium term breadth will converge at the bottom - a great place for adding to long term mutual fund & ETF holdings.

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
apka
Black Belt
Black Belt


Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6069

Post: #1108   PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The New York Federal Reserve recession indicator is now at highs last seen in 2008 when the US economy collapsed. The indicator has accurately predicted every recession since the 1960s.

What the recession indicator means

The indicator measures the likelihood of a US recession in the coming 12 months. Historically, a reading above 30 percent has accurately predicted every economic downturn for the last 60 years. The gauge ticked up to 32 percent in June, after hovering at 28 percent in May.

The indicator itself measures the spread between three-month Treasury note yields and ten-year yields. In simple terms, it flashes red when short-term yields are higher than those for long-term bonds (usually referred to as a yield curve inversion).

It has to stay there for a couple of months before you start to worry. One month or so, we wouldn’t consider it a lengthy period of time.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Sun08
White Belt
White Belt


Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 315

Post: #1109   PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

After a long time nifty is below s&p dollex 30 and Baltic dry index on the verge of breaking a 5 year high. highly confusing as it suggests a strong bullish future while technical suggest otherwise.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SwingTrader
Site Admin


Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #1110   PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree, quite confusing signals. Technically we are near highs so not too bearish. Rolling returns also indicate good time to buy mid and small cap stocks but such conditions can remain this way for a while so no clear signal to go long right now. If market goes down for a while the rolling returns picture would probably just get better. So can't decide on it on a short/medium term basis.

Have to depend completely on price action going forward as always.

Breadth oscillator indicates possible short term upturn soon. Could be tomorrow or could be in the next few days (unless we break down from these levels). Both short and medium term near bottom means could be a good time for long term MF/ETF adds.

_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iCharts Discussions Forum Index -> SwingTrader's Corner All times are GMT + 5.5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 73, 74, 75, 76  Next
Page 74 of 76

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group

@MEMBER OF PROJECT HONEY POT
Spam Harvester Protection Network
provided by Unspam