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Market Direction
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Author Market Direction
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Post: #91   PostPosted: Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Longterm market sentiment as on 16.03.2012

Things still looking fine for a bull run. The intermediate term sentiment continues to drop and long term sentiment continues to be in neutral zone. This is good. If this continues and we see intermediate term sentiment at or below zero it would be an excellent opportunity to add to longs. The only other condition is that longterm sentiment will have to continue to be in neutral zone around that time. If long term sentiment drops significantly, we run the risk of a deeper pullback. For me a level around 5000 is the key, anything below that is big risk. I would not stay long if market starts to break down below 5000.

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Post: #92   PostPosted: Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The case for pullback to around 5000-5100.

Other than my default assumption that we are in a bull trend (I am long but hedged until signals are clear) I see two things. One, we pullback to 5000-5100 area. Two, we plunge down further.

Case One - Pullback to 5000-5100

From my experience with longterm sentiment charts I see pullbacks taking the intermediate term sentiment to below 0 when bull trend is going on and above 0 when bear trend is going on. The trend then resumes (pullbacks end). The current pullback seems to be incomplete. Intermediate term sentiment is not yet negative which would indicate a washout of bearish sentiment and would allow the uptrend to resume. I am thinking the area around 144 SMA (blue line on attached NF chart) would be a good support area and a pullback to around there looks imminient at the moment. It would be a good place to add to longs.

Scenario no. 3 (marked on chart) would also be possible where we just rally from this point on without we seeing a washout of bearish sentiment. But my opinion is that we may not see this scenario.

Case Two - We plunge down further

This would be like the what happened around point marked '4' on the NF chart. Intermediate term sentiment went below 0 and kept going down further indicating deterioration of overall market sentiment. Long term sentiment was around neutral. Price rallied a bit but neither intermediate term sentiment nor long term sentiment supported this rise. Later price and both sentiment indicators crashed indicating start of bear trend. Could this happen? Anything can happen in the market Very Happy I will be keeping my eyes wide open to spot such an event happening. I would probably liquidate longs and unwind my hedges and get out with a small loss to prepare for future accumulation at better prices.

NOTE: All key pullbacks on NF chart (circled and numbered - 1,2,4,5,6 and 7) had intermediate term sentiment dip above/below 0 (below 0 for uptrends, above 0 for downtrends). #3 is a case where sentiment was so strong that we did not get a washout action.

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Post: #93   PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2012 10:53 am    Post subject: Longterm sentiment update - 20.03.2012 Reply with quote

Please see comments on the attached chart.
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Post: #94   PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2012 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Things are still looking ok with intermediate term sentiment (red line) continuing to decline indicating market in correction mode. Long term sentiment (blue line) still in neutral zone. All this still indicates that we are in a pullback in an uptrend. Only a serious decline of long term sentiment will put us back in bear mode. So waiting for the market to make its next move.

The worst I am looking at is a pullback to around 5100-5000 area, below this its gets tricky.

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Post: #95   PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Longterm Sentiment Update - 28.03.2012

We are on weak ground now as longterm sentiment has started to decline. Status is now neutral to bearish and getting more and more weaker. The powerful rally from the Dec 2011 bottom has been sentimentally weak to begin with and has just turned far more weaker. Market internals don't look that good anymore. Of course, the market could turn up in the coming few days but until the longterm sentiment turns up strongly and moves above 0, I don't think it is a good idea to add to longterm positions. Swing/position trading is probably the only way to go for now until the picture gets clearer.

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Post: #96   PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy theres nothing to be feared it is to be understood , thanks onceagain.
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Post: #97   PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:32 pm    Post subject: Longterm Sentiment Update - 30.03.2012 Reply with quote

We are back in neutral-to-bullish state as long term sentiment has improved a bit. Above 5400 on NF can take us further up to test the high of around 5550 which will be the key test. On the downside we could be in trouble below 5100. Holding my longs but have hedged them as this rally out of Dec lows is certainly weaker than the rally out of the 2008 lows.
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Post: #98   PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Long term sentiment continues to be neutral to bullish after dipping into bearish territory for exactly one day on 29th Mar. 5400 to 5100 is key range as of now. Breakout above 5400 will setup a test of 5500-5600 area. Below On the downside below 5100 we have trouble. Keep an eye on the long term trendline from Nov 2010 top, it is an important trendline.
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Post: #99   PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nothing much has changed in the last one week. Sentiment remains neutral-to-bullish. Lot of noise is being made by us traders/investors but status continues to be the same. We are still neutral to bullish but things are hanging in balance, a strong move either way can change things suddenly. The bullish wedge forming just above long term trendline seems to be the key now, if we breakout above the wedge then we can rally fast. If we fall back below the long term trendline then it could mean that the rally above the trendline was just a fake. That would mean further down moves....I am hoping this scenario doesn't play out. But we have to be ready for anything, so be prepared as the wedge will not last long now.
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Post: #100   PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Again, nothing much has changed in the last two weeks, NF continues to consolidate above the long-term bearish trendline. NF continues to be in the bullish wedge / descending triangle. Bias is still to the upside but a single day can change everything. So the best thing is to closely watch price action and take decisions based on it only.

SENTIMENT

Sentiment continues to be neutral. As I said, the rally from the lows in Dec 2011 has been weak (sentiment wise) as the long-term sentiment failed to decisively break above the key 0 level. My longs are hedged as I still don't trust this rally. As a rule I hedge my long-term longs early in the rally and again later when long-term sentiment tops. I will look to add to my longs only if long-term sentiment moves above 0.

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Post: #101   PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2012 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Significant weakness in the sentiment has developed with NF breaking key support. The last stand for NF probably is the long term trendline, below that we go back into the long term downtrend.

NSE sentiment has deteriorated in the last few days. Serious upmove may now be possible only if long term sentiment improves significantly (above 0).

Currently watching these levels : Bullish only above 5250-75, bearish below 5000.

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Post: #102   PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2012 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Significant weakness in the sentiment has developed with NF breaking key support. The last stand for NF probably is the long term trendline, below that we go back into the long term downtrend.

NSE sentiment has deteriorated in the last few days. Serious upmove may now be possible only if long term sentiment improves significantly (above 0).

Currently watching these levels : Bullish only above 5250-75, bearish below 5000.


Dear ST Sir,

One doubt, is the Nifty spot making a bullish flag, or Flag pattern has been negeted by the spike which has broken the downward TL?
Need a clarification on that,

regards,
Chetan.
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Post: #103   PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2012 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chetan83 wrote:
SwingTrader wrote:
Significant weakness in the sentiment has developed with NF breaking key support. The last stand for NF probably is the long term trendline, below that we go back into the long term downtrend.

NSE sentiment has deteriorated in the last few days. Serious upmove may now be possible only if long term sentiment improves significantly (above 0).

Currently watching these levels : Bullish only above 5250-75, bearish below 5000.


Dear ST Sir,

One doubt, is the Nifty spot making a bullish flag, or Flag pattern has been negeted by the spike which has broken the downward TL?
Need a clarification on that,

regards,
Chetan.


No spot NIFTY also has not yet broken the down TL, the price is currently right on the down TL. So we are at a critical juncture now.

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Post: #104   PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NF right on the long term bearish trendline. There is also a 61.8% retracement level confluence right here (61.8% of the recent rally). So if we are to reverse it could be here.

On the sentiment front, it took a big hit recently. Now -60% is a area where it could reverse from (intermediate term sentiment). If things get really worse only then it could head to -80%. But if sentiment goes down to -80% then it would indicate broad bearish sentiment/weakness.

Obviously, I am watching the long term bearish trendline / fib confluence keenly...hoping market would reverse from here.

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Post: #105   PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2012 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No chance at all. We sliced through the long term trendline as if it did not exist at all. Now things are clearly bearish until we get above the long term bearish trendline.

NSE long term sentiment too is declining fast. Intermediate term sentiment hiitting -80% would be a good place to reverse which is not far away. Serious money should go into longs only after long term sentiment recovers and moves above 0. Position traders can look to get long after intermediate sentiment bottoms out.

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