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Market Direction
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Author Market Direction
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Yellow Belt
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Joined: 28 Dec 2009
Posts: 645

Post: #46   PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi all,

how sentiments get changed so quickly, a learning !! A month back, chorus was singing 4200, 3800...experts say "trend is friend"....go with it....rather i would say, go against the trend & "let ur profits make u something to spend" Wink Wink Wink Wink

but one should be able to correctly predict the trend change game...let it be any indicator....and be wise & trade with patience..

Rgds
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2902
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #47   PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kiranr wrote:
Hi ST,

Is it necessary that the long term indicator must fall below -80% for the following bull move to be strong? I am asking this because 2008-2009 was an extreme event and one that may not repeat as, collectively, the stocks fell and rose really fast.


No...long term sentiment may not fall below -80% at all...it can do anything. I don't rely on it to go below -80% before a bull market can start. It has stayed below 0 in negative territory for quite a while and that is enough for me. Now if it goes into positive territory I will buy without hesitating as the rally could be significant. Even if it is not, I will take the risk and take whatever opportunity I get.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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Post: #48   PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
kiran, if you notice both indicators have reached at least -60%. so you have a choice. as far as I am concerned, the message is clear. it is time to start seling in short term.


True...there is no buy signal at this time and this rally is still looking very much like a bear rally. As I said, for me the next pullback is the key. Once we see that only then we will know how things could pan out in the near future.

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vinay28
Black Belt
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #49   PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks ST. I would request you to post it in the week after 10th feb to verify my certain beliefs.
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josabr
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Joined: 22 Jul 2009
Posts: 10

Post: #50   PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:16 pm    Post subject: Requests; Overlay Nifty & 2007-2010 sentiment chart Reply with quote

Thanks a lot ST. If I may add another request:
Could you overlay Nifty on this chart?.
Also could you provide the chart for 2007-2010..just curious to see how the sentiment swung during that period!

Thanks
Joe
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734

Post: #51   PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST

Thanks for the Chart. As per the strategy adapted by your friend one should be selling now.

But if We look at the fundamental factors, should realize that all the world markets are rising flooded with paper supply and no one knows when the floods are going to recede.

So it may not be wise at least for this time to go for positional shorts. Trading pull backs is a different issue. The position you have taken appears rational in the given context in my opinion.
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vinay28
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Post: #52   PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

just wait for a week rk. Wink
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rk_a2003
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Post: #53   PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
just wait for a week rk. Wink


Any how! I will be armed and ready with my IFCI Short by that time Wink
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
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Post: #54   PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
ST

Thanks for the Chart. As per the strategy adapted by your friend one should be selling now.

But if We look at the fundamental factors, should realize that all the world markets are rising flooded with paper supply and no one knows when the floods are going to recede.

So it may not be wise at least for this time to go for positional shorts. Trading pull backs is a different issue. The position you have taken appears rational in the given context in my opinion.


Yes, my friend is net short the market. He runs a very well planned trading campaign so he knows what he is doing. In any case, he will be wrong when market reverses (from bear to bull or bull to bear), it is handled well in his trading system so he is fine with it.

Fundamentals are something both he & I don't look at and we both have profited well from ignoring the fundamentals and we will keep it that way.

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Last edited by SwingTrader on Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:09 am; edited 1 time in total
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SwingTrader
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Post: #55   PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest long term sentiment chart

Long term sentiment up nicely....pattern is consistent with a market reversal that could last a while but confirmation is pending.

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vinay28
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Post: #56   PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many thanks ST. Please post it every weekend considering that we are at a crucial stage. Also, is it possible for one to see it anytime one wishes without having to wait for you to post or is it something you create?
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SwingTrader
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Post: #57   PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
Many thanks ST. Please post it every weekend considering that we are at a crucial stage. Also, is it possible for one to see it anytime one wishes without having to wait for you to post or is it something you create?


Will post it every weekend. At the moment I can't make it available on the website as I need to do few things on the server so the chart builds automatically. I will do that in the near future, until then I will post every weekend.

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vinay28
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Post: #58   PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

God bless you!
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SwingTrader
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Post: #59   PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Long term sentiment in positive territory after a long time!!! Watching this closely now for some back/forward action like the one around 2010 end - 2011 start when trend turned down. If sentiment holds in positive territory for a while I will start accumulating stocks for intermediate to long term. A pullback is desperately needed, I would be very uncomfortable buying into a one sided move like the one going on at the moment.
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vinay28
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Post: #60   PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wow. many thanks ST. short term sentiment has also gone to almost 90. time to react, I guess, and jump in later as you have said.

One question, can I use send/post this chart to my friends?
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