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Market Direction
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Author Market Direction
vinay28
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Post: #31   PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

it's a pity that frustrations are coming out more ferequently on icharts forum.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #32   PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guys.....please stop this. No more arguments please.
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chandrujimrc
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Post: #33   PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi frienda,

Mkt is going as per it's own direction but this discussion is going in some other irrelevent direction.


chandru.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #34   PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:15 pm    Post subject: Market Sentiment Update as of 20.01.2012 Reply with quote

My comments are on the chart posted below.
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psalm
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Post: #35   PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This chart shows another dimension of the market....Thanks for providing more insights.....

Regards,

Sam
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nsinojia
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Post: #36   PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2guns long term market sentiment generated by stability of government., its policies and local participation of investors., as of today government is not stable., policies invite foreign liquidity, and indian mindset cautious to invest in stock market ., but prefer investment in asset class safe sectors., my experience and overall sum up says indian market will be volatile in the year 2012 ., to go up only., thanks for your chart Very Happy 2guns one more thing social economic of india has changed a lot thanks to educated people ., internet and awareness and domestic consumtion and working(earning) heads per indian family since last decade. we indian top world by 48% population in age group of 25 to 45 % thanks onceagain for your chart
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ajayhkaul
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Post: #37   PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks for the update ST
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maddyprincess
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Post: #38   PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear ST,

Since nifty broke the trend line, any update about long term sentiment ?
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SwingTrader
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Post: #39   PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

maddyprincess wrote:
Dear ST,

Since nifty broke the trend line, any update about long term sentiment ?


Here is the long-term sentiment chart as of today. The blue line (long term sentiment) is starting to move up, but it will go above 0 only if the the broad market moves up in a consistent fashion. Only the next 1-2 weeks will give us some idea of how things could pan out. The next pullback in Nifty will be the key for overall market sentiment.

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Last edited by SwingTrader on Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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psalm
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Post: #40   PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:38 pm    Post subject: Thnx Reply with quote

Thnx again ST..... Smile
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rvg
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Post: #41   PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 5:37 pm    Post subject: Seems interesting Reply with quote

Seems interesting.. ST.. thanks for providing the insight.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #42   PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:57 pm    Post subject: Longterm sentiment update Reply with quote

NSE longterm sentiment as of 03.02.2012

Longterm sentiment is high at the moment thanks to the strong rally off the lows. Intermediate term sentiment is at 80% now, it means market is way overbought now, especially given the fact that longterm sentiment is still in negative territory. So do we start accumulating here for longterm? I have not started yet. I go ahead full steam only when longterm sentiment is in positive territory but I would start looking seriously and dabble a bit in good stocks once the resistance 5400 breaks. Market breaking above 5400 and staying above is the first true test. Next pullback is the key.

One interesting way one of my friend uses the sentiment chart (I have been sending him these updates since 2-3 years now). He is a position trader and uses this sentiment info for intermediate term trades. Here is what he does : when long term sentiment is in positive territory (bull market) he buys into any decline of the intermediate term sentiment indicator (red line) below 0 (on the chart these are Feb 2010 and May 2010 declines) and starts liquidating his longs when intermediate term sentiment is around +80 and also on technical criteria and when long term sentiment is in negative territory (bear market) he shorts into rise of intermediate term indicator above 0 (on the chart - Dec 2010 and Apr, Jul & Oct 2011 bear rallies). He liquidates these shorts once intermediate term sentiment hits -80% and also on technical criteria (whichever triggers first). Smart guy Very Happy he took advantage of this recent huge rally while I am still looking for longterm trigger Very Happy Of course, our trading/investing styles are totally different....that is one of the reasons but he is not complaining Smile

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kiranr
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Post: #43   PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi ST,

Is it necessary that the long term indicator must fall below -80% for the following bull move to be strong? I am asking this because 2008-2009 was an extreme event and one that may not repeat as, collectively, the stocks fell and rose really fast.


Last edited by kiranr on Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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vinay28
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Post: #44   PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kiran, if you notice both indicators have reached at least -60%. so you have a choice. as far as I am concerned, the message is clear. it is time to start seling in short term.
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psalm
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Post: #45   PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Longterm sentiment update Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
NSE longterm sentiment as of 03.02.2012

Longterm sentiment is high at the moment thanks to the strong rally off the lows. Intermediate term sentiment is at 80% now, it means market is way overbought now, especially given the fact that longterm sentiment is still in negative territory. So do we start accumulating here for longterm? I have not started yet. I go ahead full steam only when longterm sentiment is in positive territory but I would start looking seriously and dabble a bit in good stocks once the resistance 5400 breaks. Market breaking above 5400 and staying above is the first true test. Next pullback is the key.

One interesting way one of my friend uses the sentiment chart (I have been sending him these updates since 2-3 years now). He is a position trader and uses this sentiment info for intermediate term trades. Here is what he does : when long term sentiment is in positive territory (bull market) he buys into any decline of the intermediate term sentiment indicator (red line) below 0 (on the chart these are Feb 2010 and May 2010 declines) and starts liquidating his longs when intermediate term sentiment is around +80 and also on technical criteria and when long term sentiment is in negative territory (bear market) he shorts into rise of intermediate term indicator above 0 (on the chart - Dec 2010 and Apr, Jul & Oct 2011 bear rallies). He liquidates these shorts once intermediate term sentiment hits -80% and also on technical criteria (whichever triggers first). Smart guy Very Happy he took advantage of this recent huge rally while I am still looking for longterm trigger Very Happy Of course, our trading/investing styles are totally different....that is one of the reasons but he is not complaining Smile



I wish you could help us with these kinda posts more frequently.......thanks again ST.... Very Happy
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