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Market Direction
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Author Market Direction
rk_a2003
Black Belt
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2731

Post: #121   PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
rk_a2003 wrote:
I have gone through this whole thread today. After reading all the commentary with sentiment charts we can say If Nifty go above 5400 and stay for a while uptrend will be confirmed or else if nifty come down below 5000 and stay there for a while downtrend is confirmed.

This is being told by technical analysts time and again everywhere. Why should we use the Market sentiment charts to reconfirm the above?! I failed to understand.

Even Nifty did go up above 5400 and stayed there for few day’s still unable to continue the uptrend, being dictated by so many fundamental issues it came down and still going down.(To mention a few… GARR, Rupee slide, GDP descent ….so on)


In contrary….. With fundamental analysis I am able to know that the market bottomed out temporarily around 4500 in December, January and was able to go long and stayed long and booked profits around +30%.( by riding the rally triggered by worldwide liquidity floods infused through easing schemes in US and Europe) and with F.A I know in advance that this rally is not going to sustain and has to go down till another round of pumping of money or till a natural bottom out occurs in Demand,and I expressed this position through several posts well in advance.

The bottom line is we can use FA effectively and also TA for entry exit or to optimize your trades.


“Although technical analysis and fundamental analysis are seen by many as polar opposites - the oil and water of investing - many market participants have experienced great success by combining the two. For example, some fundamental analysts use technical analysis techniques to figure out the best time to enter into an undervalued security. Oftentimes, this situation occurs when the security is severely oversold. By timing entry into a security, the gains on the investment can be greatly improved.”

I suggest everyone to embrace the above approach if they really wanted to benefit from the Stock Market.


rk,

The main reason why technicals must be used instead of fundamentals is because discussing charts is far more interesting, profitable & healthy than discussing depressing fundamentals like global economic collapse, how various countries are in dire straits and how India will also eventually head there if we don't do something, hoarding of commodities, even buying guns is suggested to protect oneself (has been suggested in one topic in economy section), ....etc etc. There are lot more nightmarish topcis discussed, I am not sure why such crazy topics have to be discussed to time the market? It is surely not good for my health Laughing

Sentiments charts are for secondary confirmation and nothing else. I just mentioned this in my latest sentiment charts post below. These are just one of the few tools that I use, nobody needs to use it. Price is the king. Nothing else is above it. Not even fundamentals. I had developed sentiment charts on the advise and ideas of a friend and he mainly uses it to time each & every intermediate move precisely. I don't do it like that, my timeframe has been slightly longer in the recent times due to time constraints. I use sentiment charts only to point our market extremes and then use few hedging techniques (have given hint in my other recent posts) to accumulate/distribute stock. No need to use any fancy fundamentals at all.

Technicals alone are much more than enough. By technicals I mean pure price action only. From my experience one will get signals from price much before you get from any fundamentals (if they eventually turn out to be correct). I have mentioned this before....I have used fundamentals exclusively for years before I have shun most of it. I use company fundamentals to filter stocks, thats it. Global fundamental scenarios etc, I have no use of it for timing. It is an illusion. In any case I like to use data that is before me than to use something that is manipulated and presented. For me price manipulation is tolerable as I can spot it. So I use charts.

If you get signals better using fundamentals, go ahead use those. No need to even look at the "junk" I am posting.


ST

Thanks for the reply.I posed concrete questions seeking concrete answers. Unfortunately, I could not get concrete answers except reiteration of your known position.

In fact I use both Fundamentals and Technicals in my trading and investing. I neither depend solely on F.A nor T.A. I use both of them depending up on the situation.

My point is no need to shun from using both of them, and I tried to prove it from application point of view.

You know if T.A is not applied properly there is an every chance that it may back fire, in the same way if F.A is not applied properly it too may backfire.

There are plenty of tools and approaches available to discount the manipulations of Data. In fact, we will be able to know what the actual fact is by critically following manipulated data (it’s again an art just like T.A). One can discount it in the same way as you do in price manipulation.

I completely understand what you are saying still I do have reservation.

I am a student for life time. I cannot ignore any posts from you and cannot view them as ‘Junk’. I follow them and try to absorb the essence, of course with critical analysis.
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866

Post: #122   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 2:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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*** GARBAGE IS NOT ALLOWED HERE ***

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STEPUP
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Joined: 17 Mar 2012
Posts: 95

Post: #123   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 6:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajayhkaul wrote:
[CONTENT REMOVED]

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Its too harsh ST.
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #124   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

STEPUP wrote:
ajayhkaul wrote:
[CONTENT REMOVED]

*** GARBAGE IS NOT ALLOWED HERE ***

[FORUM ACCESS REMOVED]


Its too harsh ST.


Well....he should have posted whatever he wanted to post in his forum. I had hit out against fundamentals in general. I had also hit out against the senseless posts in the economy forum section. If he had any issues with either of this then he should have hit out in his forum in whatever way he wanted. One can't just go to any forum and post whatever garbage they want and expect to get away with it.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2731

Post: #125   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST

I don't see any 'Garbage' in Ajay's post. I only can see frustration in deleting the content and in removing forum access for him. Shocked
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #126   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
ST

I don't see any 'Garbage' in Ajay's post. I only can see frustration in deleting the content and in removing forum access for him. Shocked


rk,

You don't know what he posted. To begin with there was no reason for him to hit out here but he choose to. Our forum rules are clear in that aspect.

It is best if you don't push this further.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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STEPUP
White Belt
White Belt


Joined: 17 Mar 2012
Posts: 95

Post: #127   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
rk_a2003 wrote:
ST

I don't see any 'Garbage' in Ajay's post. I only can see frustration in deleting the content and in removing forum access for him. Shocked


rk,

You don't know what he posted. To begin with there was no reason for him to hit out here but he choose to. Our forum rules are clear in that aspect.

It is best if you don't push this further.


Cool Down Srikanthji. coolp

Heterogeneity is Humanity.

Everyone is good out here.

We understand Ajayji has got some reservation towards Technical Analysis & i have towards Fundamental but Srikanthji accept every view, you are the administrator, if you yourself start dictating terms, where this will lead to, please, i humbly request you to remove ban on Ajayji.

You could have content warning but banning except any unethical practice
that's too harsh.
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2884
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #128   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

STEPUP wrote:
SwingTrader wrote:
rk_a2003 wrote:
ST

I don't see any 'Garbage' in Ajay's post. I only can see frustration in deleting the content and in removing forum access for him. Shocked


rk,

You don't know what he posted. To begin with there was no reason for him to hit out here but he choose to. Our forum rules are clear in that aspect.

It is best if you don't push this further.


Cool Down Srikanthji. coolp

Heterogeneity is Humanity.

Everyone is good out here.

We understand Ajayji has got some reservation towards Technical Analysis & i have towards Fundamental but Srikanthji accept every view, you are the administrator, if you yourself start dictating terms, where this will lead to, please, i humbly request you to remove ban on Ajayji.

You could have content warning but banning except any unethical practice
that's too harsh.


We'll see...as of now no change in my stance. Accepting every view is fine for general trading/investing forums out there. There anything posted is fine. The focus of our website is technical analysis only and I personally discourage fundamental analysis as it is flawed. This stance will change only if I stop managing the forum. I think maybe I will do it in the near future and then let whoever manages the forum decide what is to be done with it. Until I manage the forum I can't stand the crap being posted in the name of fundamental analysis.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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STEPUP
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Joined: 17 Mar 2012
Posts: 95

Post: #129   PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
STEPUP wrote:
SwingTrader wrote:
rk_a2003 wrote:
ST

I don't see any 'Garbage' in Ajay's post. I only can see frustration in deleting the content and in removing forum access for him. Shocked


rk,

You don't know what he posted. To begin with there was no reason for him to hit out here but he choose to. Our forum rules are clear in that aspect.

It is best if you don't push this further.


Cool Down Srikanthji. coolp

Heterogeneity is Humanity.

Everyone is good out here.

We understand Ajayji has got some reservation towards Technical Analysis & i have towards Fundamental but Srikanthji accept every view, you are the administrator, if you yourself start dictating terms, where this will lead to, please, i humbly request you to remove ban on Ajayji.

You could have content warning but banning except any unethical practice
that's too harsh.


We'll see...as of now no change in my stance. Accepting every view is fine for general trading/investing forums out there. There anything posted is fine. The focus of our website is technical analysis only and I personally discourage fundamental analysis as it is flawed. This stance will change only if I stop managing the forum. I think maybe I will do it in the near future and then let whoever manages the forum decide what is to be done with it. Until I manage the forum I can't stand the crap being posted in the name of fundamental analysis.


I think Srikanthji, you are bit annoyed today, i think , its better for me to give you time to settle down.

Take Care
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