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3 , 15 EOD EMA Cross over trades
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Author 3 , 15 EOD EMA Cross over trades
stevenmat
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Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 422

Post: #1   PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 5:01 pm    Post subject: 3 , 15 EOD EMA Cross over trades Reply with quote

Since i have never seen any one posting this method of trading ... I thought i'll start...

Basically during the course i will post on this forum when there is a crossover. The best way to make use of this is to buy calls/puts. P

Although this method has almost a flawless profit making strike rate, the only problem with the method is that you get to take only a few trades. But the risk reward is quite appealing.

Just to give a recent example nifty had a bearish 3 - 15 day EMA crossover On feb 1st. and since i knew that this crossover would happen i bought 6100 puts at a price of 111.8 just before the close on 1st. and i squared off the position on feb 5th at 152 (Return of approx 36 %).

This way we can trade on the index when ever there is a cross over.

I will post on this forum when the crossover is just about to happen.

I know this forum will be dormant most of the time. But this method is for patient traders.

Cheers !!
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sonila
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Joined: 04 Jun 2009
Posts: 1786

Post: #2   PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:07 pm    Post subject: Re: 3 , 15 EOD EMA Cross over trades Reply with quote

stevenmat wrote:
Since i have never seen any one posting this method of trading ... I thought i'll start...

Basically during the course i will post on this forum when there is a crossover. The best way to make use of this is to buy calls/puts. P

Although this method has almost a flawless profit making strike rate, the only problem with the method is that you get to take only a few trades. But the risk reward is quite appealing.

Just to give a recent example nifty had a bearish 3 - 15 day EMA crossover On feb 1st. and since i knew that this crossover would happen i bought 6100 puts at a price of 111.8 just before the close on 1st. and i squared off the position on feb 5th at 152 (Return of approx 36 %).

This way we can trade on the index when ever there is a cross over.

I will post on this forum when the crossover is just about to happen.

I know this forum will be dormant most of the time. But this method is for patient traders.

Cheers !!
very simple yet effective positional method. Thnx for posting. Pl do continue.
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deepakms
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Joined: 13 Aug 2009
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Post: #3   PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Steve,

If it works well on the index,could work for stocks as well.
Please share ur views on this.

Thnx/Rgds
Deepak
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stevenmat
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Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 422

Post: #4   PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

deepakms wrote:
Hi Steve,

If it works well on the index,could work for stocks as well.
Please share ur views on this.

Thnx/Rgds
Deepak


HI deepak..

This can be used for stocks but it doesnt have the same strike rate as with the index options... You can plot and see it for your self... its very simple... The only catch is that you don't know where your targets are (ie bottoms and tops)... But i check an overall pattern and decide for myself ... for eg now the nifty is quite bullish on the medium term...so with the bearish crossover that happened on feb 1st your returns would be 30-40%... But With the bullish cross over you can aim for higher targets (depending on market conditions)..

For eg there was a bearish crossover on Nov 13th with the NS closing at 5667.. Imagine you had bought puts at the end of the day...with two days you got a target (on closing basis) of 5574.... ie a GAIN of 93 points..

Similarly there was a bullish crossover on Nov 27th with the NS closing at 5727 (pl note that we are buying at the closing price in order to get the confirmation).. Also note that this move on Nov27th was a 90 point move on the nifty... So the pay off in this case within two days is = close on move 30th 5880 - 5727 = a GAIN of 153 points ..

Generally i advice people to book profits in two days or so just to be safe


Disclaimer : In my knowledge the only time the system has backfired was on May 28th .. i had bought calls at NS closing of 4986.. next day opening was gap up around 20 points with a day high of 5020..the EOD close was 4990..so i was holding the calls for next day and nifty fell the next day and i had to book a loss. But it happened that there was a bearish crossover the next day so i had to quickly change from calls to puts which helped me cover my losses.. So no regrets there..

Anyways happy trading everyone !
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s.muthuswamy
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Joined: 15 Jun 2008
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Post: #5   PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Though targets cannot be fixed in advance,
1. A LONG trade may be continued till the EOD candle closes below 3dema
line in RED.

2. A SHORT trade can be continued till the EOD candle closes above 3dema
line in GREEN.

Though a logical reason cannot be given for this , by an observation of charts of various indices and scrips , the above holds good.
Remember , all these on EOD basis only.

Further RSI(14) must be >50 for Long trade
and RSI(14) must be <50 for a short trade.
In the case of the long trade on 28-5-12 , RSI(14)=47 only. This may be the reason for this trade resulting in a loss.
Regards.
S.Muthuswamy
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skd2012
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Joined: 03 Oct 2012
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do not know much about the method. But happens to scan this. I see HDFC and MARUTI future are falling in the category for fresh short trade?

HEXAWARE in fresh long scan.
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anilnegi
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Joined: 02 Oct 2012
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Post: #7   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:21 pm    Post subject: Re: 3 , 15 EOD EMA Cross over trades Reply with quote

stevenmat wrote:
Since i have never seen any one posting this method of trading ... I thought i'll start...

Basically during the course i will post on this forum when there is a crossover. The best way to make use of this is to buy calls/puts. P

Although this method has almost a flawless profit making strike rate, the only problem with the method is that you get to take only a few trades. But the risk reward is quite appealing.

Just to give a recent example nifty had a bearish 3 - 15 day EMA crossover On feb 1st. and since i knew that this crossover would happen i bought 6100 puts at a price of 111.8 just before the close on 1st. and i squared off the position on feb 5th at 152 (Return of approx 36 %).

This way we can trade on the index when ever there is a cross over.

I will post on this forum when the crossover is just about to happen.

I know this forum will be dormant most of the time. But this method is for patient traders.

Cheers !!




315 is highly effective method/strategy used by one of trader in traderji forum, he has many succesful follower for this strategy
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stevenmat
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Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 422

Post: #8   PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

s.muthuswamy wrote:
Though targets cannot be fixed in advance,
1. A LONG trade may be continued till the EOD candle closes below 3dema
line in RED.

2. A SHORT trade can be continued till the EOD candle closes above 3dema
line in GREEN.

Though a logical reason cannot be given for this , by an observation of charts of various indices and scrips , the above holds good.
Remember , all these on EOD basis only.

Further RSI(14) must be >50 for Long trade
and RSI(14) must be <50 for a short trade.
In the case of the long trade on 28-5-12 , RSI(14)=47 only. This may be the reason for this trade resulting in a loss.
Regards.
S.Muthuswamy


Thanks for sharing the observation... Quite interesting Smile
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stevenmat
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Joined: 27 Dec 2011
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Post: #9   PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sw_das wrote:
Do not know much about the method. But happens to scan this. I see HDFC and MARUTI future are falling in the category for fresh short trade?

HEXAWARE in fresh long scan.


Yes...thats why i said its not advisable for stocks.... it works well on the index because the index as a whole is an indicator of a wide variety so a longer plot like 3 15 works better...but on stocks since it is highly speculative its difficult to always apply the same...
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Andre
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Post: #10   PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stevenmat, Muthuswamy.....
Just for academic reason....why r we choosing 3*15 EMA crossover...why cant we shd choose 5*20...for the sake of taking better and reliable trend following...
since i am novice in technical trading pls pardon my ignorance in case of foolishness ...my limited understanding is this method has inbuilt advantage of stop loss and trend following....so how come 3*15 EMA crossover is best strategy rather than taking any other crossover....

Thanks
Andre
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stevenmat
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andre wrote:
Stevenmat, Muthuswamy.....
Just for academic reason....why r we choosing 3*15 EMA crossover...why cant we shd choose 5*20...for the sake of taking better and reliable trend following...
since i am novice in technical trading pls pardon my ignorance in case of foolishness ...my limited understanding is this method has inbuilt advantage of stop loss and trend following....so how come 3*15 EMA crossover is best strategy rather than taking any other crossover....

Thanks
Andre


Simple reason : 3 15 is quicker (yes i know! its riskier) .. But aren't we all eager to trade? Very Happy
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opportunist
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Joined: 27 Apr 2010
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Post: #12   PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This method I believe was developed and fine tuned by Alchemist. I had the privilege to learn directly from him though I no longer use it. However made a quick assessment on nifty EOD chart. Found that in 250 calendar days one could have made 1181 points on nifty - 1M.

Also the method I have chosen is a very SAFE one. Enter only after EMA crossover happens and one candle closes, that is the next day. Exit on flattening of 10 period Bollinger Band. It is so safe I can claim that never will anyone see a negative exit.

However ROI is low - around 23% in a month. (still very high for a sitting income). Stress is also very low as one needs to check only once a day.

For one nifty lot of assuming Rs.30,000/- one can make Rs.59,050 from 1181 points in 250 calendar days. Assuming 10% deduction in terms of brokerage, STT and transaction cost one can still make Rs. 53,000 from one lot of nifty -1M in 250 calendar days. So if some body can put in Rs. 12 lacs he can make Rs.21.3 lakhs in 250 calendar days almost risk and stress free.

Regards,

Oppo[/b]
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SUNILA
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Post: #13   PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi opportunist,

Can u explain exit in detail (Exit on flattening of 10 period Bollinger Band)

Thanks
Sunila
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opportunist
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SUNILA wrote:
Hi opportunist,

Can u explain exit in detail (Exit on flattening of 10 period Bollinger Band)

Thanks
Sunila


It means when the BB upper/lower band (as the case may be for long/short) is no longer pointing up/down at around 30-45 degrees (dont go for the number of degrees but generally pointing up or down) it means it is flattening. However, I have rethought the issue and find that this is a little vague for many though personally I have no problem following it. So I would suggest that one may keep a TSL of last candle low and exit automatically on being stopped out.

Regards,
Oppo
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SUNILA
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks opportunist for explanation.Yes flattening of BB is very vague and wll vary from trader to trader.i wll check the other option of exit and if any query i wll revert back to you.

Thanks
Sunila
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